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Winds from severe storms could rival Cat 2 hurricane

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated May 26, 2021 11:31 PM EDT

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Severe thunderstorms began rumbling to life once again Wednesday afternoon, continuing what's been an active stretch of weather for the Central states during the final full week of May.

After tornadoes touched down, including a large and dangerous one that caused damage and an injury in Kansas Monday, the area had a brief reprieve from severe thunderstorms Tuesday. Although that area was spared from severe weather, parts of Texas experienced large hail.

Ferocious winds will be among the top concerns with the midweek storms as severe weather unfolds across Kansas and surrounding areas, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

"These severe thunderstorms will have a high potential for damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and tornadoes from eastern Wyoming into South Dakota, Nebraska and western Kansas," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde.

A "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado watch was issued for parts of eastern Colorado, southern Nebraska and western Kansas until 2 a.m. CDT Thursday with the National Weather Service (NWS) citing that "a few intense tornadoes" are likely in this zone.

Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches across the Plains as of late Wednesday afternoon. (AccuWeather)

There is currently a moderate risk of severe weather through Wednesday night for parts of Nebraska and Kansas. This area, which includes cities such as Hastings and North Platte, Nebraska, has a population of around 285,000, according to the NWS's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Moderate is the fourth-highest level on the SPC's warning system for severe thunderstorms.

The map above shows the Storm Prediction Center outlook for severe weather into Wednesday night.

The number of people in the threat area when accounting for the slight risk areas across the southern Plains and the northeastern U.S is a whopping 57.4 million.

While the first half of Wednesday was quiet, thunderstorms began to develop late in the afternoon. Reports of hail and sightings of possible tornadoes soon began to flood social media.

NOAA's SPC listed two preliminary tornado reports, both in Ellis County, Kansas, around 3 p.m. CDT, and hail measuring up to 2 inches in diameter was also reported in the county. By 6 p.m. CDT, there were at least 16 preliminary tornado reports across Kansas and Nebraska.

By the nighttime hours Wednesday, individual thunderstorms are likely to merge into a cluster. This will significantly increase the threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

"As the storms continue to build on Wednesday night, the risk for severe weather will continue to be significant, especially through southern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where the ingredients come together most prominently for thunderstorms to spin," said Rinde.

From Wednesday night to early Thursday, the storms have the potential to organize into a fast-moving line that can generate a long swath of damaging winds. In the past, extreme cases of this have yielded a phenomenon known as a derecho. On Aug. 10-11, 2020, a severe derecho rolled along a 700-mile swath, predominantly from eastern Nebraska to Indiana. Damage exceeded $10 billion.

Wind gusts could reach an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph across parts of the Central states. For comparison, a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific Oceans, has wind speeds ranging from 96-110 mph. An EF1 tornado can generate winds anywhere from 86-110 mph.

Farther south, there will also be a threat of severe weather in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Thunderstorm coverage is not expected to be as widespread, but wind, large hail and a tornado or two will be possible.

In the wake of a cold front, Wyoming, Nebraska and western Kansas will have a much quieter day Thursday. However, severe thunderstorms are likely to shift farther east.

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"As the storms continue through the central Plains on Thursday, severe thunderstorm risks will continue through eastern Kansas into Missouri," said Rinde.

He also noted that the greatest chance of tornadoes is expected to be in southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri Thursday.

"Depending on the amount of sunshine and corresponding daytime heating over parts of the southern Plains on Thursday, there is the risk of a few strong tornadoes that could be on the ground for more than a few minutes," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski warned.

The risk for severe weather will be lower by the end of the week, as the cold front continues to move southward. The most likely area for severe thunderstorms Friday will be in Texas and Louisiana. Strong winds, heavy downpours and an isolated tornado would be the most likely threats.

Thunderstorms may return to portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas by Sunday or Monday. At this point, it is unclear how strong the storms will be, but AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation heading into the upcoming holiday weekend.

Related:

Bad weather may spoil Memorial Day weekend for millions
Video shows tornado causing chaos in small Kansas town
Study finds shocking benefit of lightning

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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