Northeast faces severe weather threat amid heat, humidity
Millions of people from Chicago through New York City could experience powerful thunderstorms early this week, bringing the risk of air travel disruptions at major airports across the Midwest and Northeast.
June has been the most active severe month of 2022 with over 4,500 reports of tornadoes, wind and hail.
Much of the country has been no stranger to rounds of intense thunderstorms as of late, fueled by hot summer weather and a persistent surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This week, as a cold front slides eastward, AccuWeather forecasters expect more of the same in the Midwest and Northeast.
The northern Plains has been the primary target of severe thunderstorms in recent days, with the region experiencing some form of severe weather every day since the start of this month. Powerful storms on Friday packed hurricane-force wind gusts with a gust of 91 mph recorded. Storm intensity peaked on Friday when wind gusts of 91 mph were observed in Big Sandy, Montana, located in the north-central part of the state. The storms continued to roll through the weekend with winds reaching 75 mph in Rapid City, South Dakota.
The setup for intense thunderstorms early this week will be similar into Monday night. As an expanding dome of heat brings scorching conditions to the southern Plains and Southwest, it will bring all of the ingredients together for thunderstorms to develop.
"Ahead of an approaching cold front, southwesterly winds will bring a warm and humid air mass into the Midwest. When these two factors combine, it will be enough to create a broad severe threat area, stretching from the Great Lakes westward into the Plains," AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman explained.
Storms are likely to slice across the threat area from northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours on Monday.
Residents in cities such as Kansas City, Missouri; Davenport, Iowa, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, will want to stay aware of changing weather conditions and monitor the latest watches and warnings should any storms approach.
Later on Monday night, storms may press southward and eastward toward locations such as Indianapolis and Columbus, Ohio. While the likelihood of severe thunderstorms is lower in these areas, a round of gusty storms is a possibility that could cause localized power outages.
As the cold front presses eastward into Tuesday, the severe threat will shift along with it. As the Plains and most of the Midwest will finally get a break from thunderstorms, the mid-Atlantic and Northeast will become the centers of attention.
Much like the day prior, these storms will be fueled by an influx of high heat and humidity into the region. Temperatures ahead of the approaching front are set to surge in the Northeast, setting the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms with widespread temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s F. The strong summer sun paired with the humidity could send AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures toward 100 F in some locations.
"While the Northeast has enjoyed a period of low humidity as of late, a northward surge of moisture will put an end to this, while also allowing for the development of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon," Gilman said.
Storms may initially develop near the Great Lakes but spread southward and eastward. Cities such as Syracuse, New York, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, may get disruptive storms during the afternoon hours, and outdoor plans during those times may need to be reconsidered. During the evening, storms may press farther south into the mid-Atlantic and eastward toward the immediate coast. In Washington, D.C., New York City and Boston, the drive home may be disrupted by storms.
Like the day before, hail and strong wind gusts will be the main hazards from these storms, in addition to heavy rain and frequent lightning. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, however.
The rain that accompanies the thunderstorms will be welcomed by some residents across the Northeast. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, there are pockets across the region that have been abnormally dry. As a result, some small streams have dried up and unwatered lawns have begun to turn brown and go dormant.
The window of time for severe storms to be a threat will be short-lived. By Wednesday, the cold front will clear the Northeast coast, bringing the return of dry weather once again by the middle of the week.
However, the potential for severe weather will shift toward portions of the Carolinas at midweek. The threat of flash flooding will continue in the Southeast states through the end of the week and there is concern a tropical system may brew along the central Gulf coast that could add to blossoming rainfall.
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