East Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Center
Ivo remains a tropical storm
Tropical Storm Ivo continue to track to the northwest with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Ivo will continue to track over very warm water. However, increasing northeasterly shear has caused the deep convection to become slightly displaced off to the southwest of the storm and the low-level center is fully exposed. This increased shear may inhibit Ivo from becoming a hurricane.
Regardless of strength, Ivo will track to the northwest, generally parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico and Baja California. Even though the center of Ivo is forecast to stay off the coast of Mexico, a surge of tropical moisture will produce rain and a few heavier thunderstorms near and along the coast of western Mexico and over parts of Baja California Sur. This can produce isolated flash flooding and higher terrain mudslides. Ivo will also generate rough and dangerous surf along the west and south coast of Baja California through the weekend, then Southern California early next week.
Ivo is expected to eventually move over colder water and into a more stable environment this weekend. These more hostile conditions will cause the tropical cyclone to gradually weaken through the weekend. Ivo is expected to degenerate into a non-tropical low pressure area well off the northern coast of Baja California. The storm will completely fall apart well southwest of San Diego during next week.
Also, an area of disturbed weather is located about 1,100 miles to the east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. There is a low chance that this area will consolidate into a tropical system later this weekend or early next week as it moves west into the central Pacific. No impacts to land are expected tat this time.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty
2019 East Pacific Storms
East Pacific Basin Maps
National Hurricane Center Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 230503 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A surface trough located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Although this disturbance is not showing any signs of development at this time, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development in the central Pacific well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days. The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Center 2018
Tropical Weather Reports
Weather News - August 23, 2019, 3:09:51 AM EDT
Ivo will unleash dangerous surf as it parallels the western coast of Mexico into the weekend.
Weather News - August 21, 2019, 10:38:09 PM EDT
A newly-formed tropical storm will hug the west coast of Mexico into this weekend, while a second feature is now much less likely to have significant impact on Hawaii early next week.
Weather News - August 15, 2019, 11:46:59 AM EDT
A tropical disturbance over the eastern Pacific may travel close enough to Hawaii to have some indirect impact next week.
Weather News - August 06, 2019, 5:08:10 AM EDT
Despite weakening, Flossie will stir rough seas and bring an increase in drenching showers as it tracks much closer to Hawaii than Erick.
Weather News - August 01, 2019, 11:45:24 AM EDT
Hurricane Erick and Tropical Storm Flossie will pose a dual threat to the Hawaiian islands from late this week into early next week.
Weather News - July 09, 2019, 2:10:57 AM EDT
While Barbara is no longer a hurricane or tropical storm, showers and thunderstorms associated with the diminished system are forecast to impact Hawaii early this week.
Weather News - June 30, 2019, 1:29:17 AM EDT
In the wake of Alvin, additional tropical systems are expected to develop over the warm waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean this week.