Tropical Storm Ivo continue to track to the northwest with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Ivo will continue to track over very warm water. However, increasing northeasterly shear has caused the deep convection to become slightly displaced off to the southwest of the storm and the low-level center is fully exposed. This increased shear may inhibit Ivo from becoming a hurricane.

Regardless of strength, Ivo will track to the northwest, generally parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico and Baja California. Even though the center of Ivo is forecast to stay off the coast of Mexico, a surge of tropical moisture will produce rain and a few heavier thunderstorms near and along the coast of western Mexico and over parts of Baja California Sur. This can produce isolated flash flooding and higher terrain mudslides. Ivo will also generate rough and dangerous surf along the west and south coast of Baja California through the weekend, then Southern California early next week.

Ivo is expected to eventually move over colder water and into a more stable environment this weekend. These more hostile conditions will cause the tropical cyclone to gradually weaken through the weekend. Ivo is expected to degenerate into a non-tropical low pressure area well off the northern coast of Baja California. The storm will completely fall apart well southwest of San Diego during next week.

Also, an area of disturbed weather is located about 1,100 miles to the east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. There is a low chance that this area will consolidate into a tropical system later this weekend or early next week as it moves west into the central Pacific. No impacts to land are expected tat this time.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty