Frigid air eases in second week of February for Midwest, East
While even colder air will pour southward from Canada and into parts of the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, less-cold Pacific air is eyeing the region during the middle two weeks of February.
AccuWeather Reporter Anna Azallion has a look at a warmup on the way for the Southeast after another cold weekend.
Some good news is developing for those struggling to keep warm and facing high heating bills in the Midwest and the eastern United States. However, the upcoming warming process may be slow, with a disappointing end result for some.
Some of the coldest days of the winter are ahead for the Northeast this weekend. It will take some effort on the part of the atmosphere to dislodge the frigid conditions, given the frozen, snowy landscape.
In recent weeks, the polar vortex weakened and shifted, allowing frigid air to pour into the central and eastern U.S.
When the polar vortex, a large storm that typically resides near the Arctic Circle, weakens, Arctic air can move into the midlatitudes. When the polar vortex is strong, it tends to keep the coldest air locked up over the Arctic Circle.
The polar vortex is showing signs of strengthening, beginning next week, despite what Punxsutawney Phil predicted Monday. The duration of this strengthening is questionable, with AccuWeather long-range meteorologists suspicious that it may weaken again before the end of the month.
"As the polar vortex strengthens next week, the jet stream will become strong, but in a general west-to-east setup over the U.S. and southern Canada," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "As this happens, Pacific air will tend to flow across the U.S., and the air will end up being much less cold than recent weeks in the Central and Eastern states."
People in the Midwest and Northeast who have acclimated to highs in the single digits, teens and 20s may find that highs in the 30s, 40s and near 50 degrees Fahrenheit will feel like spring has arrived early. Any lasting pattern that will direct highs well into the 50s and 60s in the Northeast is a long way off.
"The forecast temperatures for next week will lead to some natural melting of the snow and ice cover-- especially when combined with the strengthening February sun," Anderson said. "On a sunny day, it may feel pretty warm riding around in the car." However, temperatures will dip back below 32 F at night in many locations, and that will lead to wet areas freezing up.
Some of the biggest rebounds in temperature will occur over the Central and Southern states, where air flowing downhill from the Rockies will be warmed a bit more.
From the Midwest to the Northeast, the combination of deep snow cover with layers of ice and frozen lakes and rivers will tend to dilute the warming process.
As a complicating factor, the pattern is also likely to feature multiple storms that are still able to produce snow, ice or a combination of both, despite temperatures trending 10-30 degrees higher.
Given the amount of ice on area streams and rivers, the last thing anyone would want is a massive warmup with heavy rain all at once. Such a condition in January 1996 resulted in major ice jams and river flooding as the snow cover melted in a matter of hours. The upcoming thaw looks to be more gradual and less intense than in 1996 — for now.
Looking further ahead in February, there may be another event that triggers a weakening of the polar vortex around midmonth or during the third week of the month. Originally, it was speculated that this might occur a bit earlier in February.
The entire process of the weakening of the polar vortex and southward Arctic air discharge triggered by sudden stratospheric warming typically unfolds over 10-14 days on average. So, if this were to occur prior to the middle of the month, any warmup would be greatly shortened. Since it is delayed or may not occur at all, the warmup should last a week or two, and perhaps longer. This is a decidedly less dire forecast for temperatures in the eastern half of the nation.
Still, given that temperatures will be well below the historical average for the first week or so of February, it may skew the monthly totals toward the cold side of normal.
Along with the challenges of forecasting the timing of stratospheric warming and polar vortex behavior, not all polar vortex shifts direct frigid air into eastern North America. Some may be directed toward western North America, Europe, or Asia instead. Often, that may not be fully revealed until a week or so ahead of time.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
