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Upper Midwest facing risk of weather whiplash

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Mar 26, 2021 12:04 PM EDT

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Across the U.S. and Canada on March 20, people took in sunrises and enjoyed blooming flowers as most of both countries got a calm first day of astronomical spring.

Following a brutally cold February, March temperatures have been well above normal in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. However, there have still been bouts of winter weather to contend with and the wild roller coaster is expected to continue into the last week of March.

Even as rain and snow retreated into Canada into Wednesday evening, temperatures in many areas were typical of what is expected in late March. For example, the high of 45 degrees in Minneapolis on Wednesday was on par with the normal high of 45 degrees for March 24.

The city has received only 4 inches of snow this month. Normally, the Twin Cities receive 9.1 inches of snow by March 25.

In addition, the temperature departure has been nearly a mirror image of February. So far, March has averaged 9.0 degrees Fahrenheit above normal -- February ended up 9.2 degrees below normal.

The next system is likely to impact areas farther east.

Low pressure moved northeastward from northern Indiana on Thursday night to southeastern Ontario by Friday morning.

Although little to no snow accumulation is expected, the strong winds will certainly be a reminder that a chill is often present in the air during the early stages of spring.

After the winds and precipitation come to an end later on Friday, another system could deliver a cold rain to cities such as Chicago and Milwaukee on Saturday. As the storm system tracks northeastward on Sunday, just enough cold air may be present for a bit of snow.

"Another quick hit of wintry weather is possible as a storm jogs through the Great Lakes this weekend," AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert said.

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The warmth that has dominated the majority of the month in the Upper Midwest will return in earnest by Monday.

"Early next week, some portions of the Midwest can experience temperatures about 10 degrees above what is normal for late March," Gilbert said.

Farther west, the Dakotas could be much farther above normal. The forecast high in Aberdeen, South Dakota, is 79 degrees on Monday. Typically, the city reaches just 47 degrees on March 29. It is not out of the question that some locations in South Dakota exceed 80 degrees on Monday.

However, the wild temperature swings are expected to continue on Tuesday, when Aberdeen will struggle to climb out of the middle 40s. Parts of North Dakota will likely stay below freezing on Tuesday.

Fargo, North Dakota, is forecast to have a high in the lower 70s on Monday before temperatures crash back into the 40s on Tuesday. An average high for March 29 in Fargo is 44.

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