Wildfire forecast 2026: Fires likely to burn over 5.5 million acres as drought intensifies
The United States faces a growing wildfire threat in the coming months, with fires in 2026 forecast to burn between 5.5 and 8 million acres across the country.
AccuWeather’s Brandon Buckingham breaks down the areas most at risk for wildfires in the coming months around the U.S.
Wildfire danger is expected to increase across much of the western United States in the coming months, while other parts of the country could face periods of heightened risk amid worsening drought and summer heat.
2026 fire forecast: Wildfires to burn more acres than last year
AccuWeather predicts 65,000 to 80,000 wildfires will ignite across the U.S. in 2026, compared to 77,850 fires reported in 2025 and the historical average of 68,707. The forecast calls for 5.5 million to 8 million acres burned this year, above the 5,131,474 acres burned in 2025 and in line with the historical average of 7,000,514.
With fewer fires but more acres burned predicted, it means that the wildfires that do occur could become large, scorching extensive areas before being contained or extinguished.
The fires can have far-reaching effects as winds carry smoke across the continent. When winds align with larger blazes, smoke can create a hazy sky and reduce air quality in areas hundreds or even thousands of miles away.
A smoky sky can also reduce temperatures by a few degrees compared to smoke-free conditions, even if the smoke is high up in the atmosphere.
California: Risk builds through summer
California is expected to see fire danger increase as the summer progresses, especially in interior and lower-elevation areas where grasses dry out and become more flammable.
"The spring season brought record-breaking heat to California early, which has rapidly melted off a meager snowpack from the winter season," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. The effects of the heat may contribute to fires in the foothills and agricultural areas during late May and early June.
The heat wave was followed by a few late-season storms, not enough to erase drought concerns or wildfire concerns, but enough to cause an uptick in vegetation heading into the summer. As this spurt of growth dries out, it can contribute to more fuel for potential fires.
A plume of smoke created by the Airport Fire is seen on a mountain top Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024, in Temescal Valley, Calif. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
Buckingham warned that residents in some coastal areas could also see fire risk rise sooner than usual because very warm Pacific water may limit the marine layer.
The fire risk is expected to become more widespread later in the summer, though the peak may hold off until autumn when wind events become more common.
Southwest, Rockies, Great Basin and Northwest: The core of the summer threat
The broadest and most persistent wildfire risk is expected from Arizona and New Mexico into Utah, Nevada, Idaho, western Montana and parts of the Northwest. Drought, above-average temperatures and below-average snowpack will set the stage for a growing fire danger as the summer progresses.
The annual monsoon serves as a double-edged sword, as moisture helps to suppress fire activity, but lightning strikes may ignite new wildfires where the ground is dry.
"With above-average tropical activity expected in the Eastern Pacific Basin, there can be additional chances for appreciable rain aside from the typical monsoon activity that can aid in reducing the risk later in the summer season," Buckingham said.
Lightning strikes a charred landscape, that burned in a major wildfire, during a monsoon thunderstorm on August 18, 2021, near Payson, Arizona. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)
Farther north, the Northwest wildfire season may start near normal before the risk expands in July and August as fuels dry out, mountain snow completely melts and lightning from dry thunderstorms sparks fires.
Other areas: Plains stay active, East stays quieter
Across the Plains, wildfire danger is likely to remain highest in western areas, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and eastern Colorado, especially during stretches of strong wind and low humidity. Farther east, more summer storms and higher humidity should keep the risk from becoming as widespread.
“Early in the summer, portions of Florida and the Southeast may still experience some wildfire risk, particularly where drought conditions linger,” Buckingham said. “However, as seasonal thunderstorm activity increases and tropical moisture becomes more prevalent, wildfire risk is expected to decrease.”
The Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to have relatively low wildfire activity this summer due to frequent rainfall, higher humidity and fully developed vegetation. The parts of the region facing the highest fire risk are the Shenandoah Valley and the Blue Ridge Mountains. Any fires could likely be tied to dry and windy conditions.
The Midwest and Northeast are expected to have relatively low wildfire activity this summer due to frequent rainfall, higher humidity and fully developed vegetation. Any fires there would likely be brief and tied to short stretches of dry and windy weather. "Early on in the season, the mid-Atlantic along and west of the Blue Ridge will have a moderate fire risk before the fuels become wet enough to lower the chances," AccuWeather Meteorologist Chad Merrill said.
Bottom line:
•AccuWeather forecasts 65,000 to 80,000 fires and 5.5 million to 8 million acres burned across the U.S. in 2026.
•The highest summer wildfire risk will focus on the western U.S., especially the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies and Northwest.
•California’s fire danger will build through summer, with broader risk later in the season.
•The Plains can still see dangerous fire weather, especially in western areas.
•Smoke could affect air quality far from active fires, even in places with relatively low wildfire risk.
