El Nino is brewing: Here’s what it means for US weather in 2026
El Niño may take shape later this year, and the ripple effects could show up in U.S. weather during the second half of 2026. Here’s what that shift can mean for rain, storms, and hurricanes.
Passengers may notice more bumpy flights over the United States this winter due to the impacts of a strong El Niño.
A major shift may be brewing in the Pacific Ocean: Forecasters say El Niño could develop later this year. If it does, it can reshape weather patterns across the United States during the second half of 2026, as well as the Atlantic hurricane season.
What is El Niño, and why does it matter?
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that shows up every few years. It happens when ocean water warms in the tropical Pacific near the equator. The opposite phase is La Niña, when that same region runs cooler than average.
When such a large stretch of the Pacific warms (or cools) for months at a time, it can nudge the jet stream into a different position. That shift can change where storms track and where wet or dry patterns set up around the world. It’s one of the factors AccuWeather considers when building long-range weather forecasts.
A man with an umbrella walks in the rain as the sun sets on Sunday, Dec. 31, 2017. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
The most recent El Niños happened during the winters of 2018-19 and 2023-24.
When will El Niño begin?
"The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill said.
But there’s a catch: Late winter and early spring are tricky times for long-range forecasting. It’s known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when models are often less reliable than they are later in the year. Even with that limitation, forecasters say the overall pattern still points toward El Niño developing by autumn.
"Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. He added that there are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but that this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.
What El Niño means for the weather and the hurricane season
If El Niño develops during summer, one of the biggest areas to watch is the Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in September.
"El Niño tends to increase the mid- to upper-level wind shear (stronger winds with height and change in direction) on a more frequent basis across portions of the Atlantic Basin," AccuWeather Long-range Expert Paul Pastelok said. "This can lead to less storm development: a roadblock to a hyperactive hurricane season this year."
In general, higher wind shear can make it harder for storms to organize and strengthen, which can reduce the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to a La Niña season. El Niño’s influence can also shift where storms are more likely to form, with activity sometimes favored farther out over the Atlantic rather than closer to the U.S. coastline. Meanwhile, El Niño can have the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where hurricane activity often increases.
El Niño can also affect rainfall patterns in the U.S. For parts of the West that have been very dry, that could be welcome news.
"El Niño patterns could bring more rain than normal to the Colorado Basin," Merrill said. The uptick in rain would not be enough to quench the ongoing drought, but it would be a step in the right direction.
"The early start to the El Niño can lead to an increase in moisture from the southern Plains to East Coast during summer and fall," Nicholls added.
Looking farther ahead, El Niño could also become an important piece of the puzzle in the 2026-27 winter forecast.
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