Hurricane season hasn't started yet, but one area is already being watched for development
Outdoor and vacation plans in a portion of the Caribbean and Florida can be impacted into the first half of June as tropical moisture builds, potentially leading to the first storm of 2026.
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno monitors the tropics with the Atlantic hurricane season just over a week away. Warm waters in the Gulf and Caribbean regions could possibly lead to homegrown development.
The official start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is on Monday, June 1, but AccuWeather hurricane experts are already keeping an eye on the potential for tropical development come early June.
"A close eye will have to be kept on the far southwestern Atlantic during the first and second weeks of June as atmospheric conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical development," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
That region of the basin, adjacent to Florida and the Southeast U.S. coast, as well as the Bahamas and Cuba, is a typical breeding ground for early-season tropical development (often called "home-brew" development) in June, which is the first official month of the season.
"This time of year, we usually watch for dips in the jet stream or old cold fronts as catalysts for tropical development," said DaSilva.
One such dip is expected to arrive during the first half of the new month, funneling in deep moisture from the Caribbean that will cause at least an uptick of shower and thunderstorm activity, if not the formation of a tropical rainstorm or tropical depression.
Other factors for potential early-season development are also at play. "Sea-surface temperatures in this area are also above average for this time of year, which can increase the chances of development," added DaSilva.
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In addition to warm ocean waters, another ingredient for a storm to form is a lack of wind shear, which is the change of wind speed and direction over a short distance. This is what may ultimately inhibit official development.
As vacation and outdoor plans ramp up in the early summer, visitors to and residents of the Southeast are likely to be curious about the potential impacts on their plans. While it is too early to say for sure what can happen and the potential for impacts or development is low overall, attention should be paid.
"If anything were to develop during the first two weeks of June, climatology would portend that the storm would likely move into the Southeast or move away from the East Coast," said DaSilva. This likely would mean beaches along the Gulf would likely avoid significant impacts, should expected steering patterns hold.
Regardless of tropical rainstorm or storm formation, more frequent and widespread showers and thunderstorms should be expected from the end of this month through the middle of June for vacationers in the Bahamas and also across the eastern portion of Cuba.
Florida, which is immersed in nearly 100% drought coverage, with nearly three-quarters of the state in extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories, could use the rain from a tropical system at the cost of impacts to outdoor activities. While the possibility of an uptick in wet weather exists in the Sunshine State, it might be limited to the southeastern portion of the peninsula or stay offshore altogether.
The Atlantic basin hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. In the seasonal forecast released in late March, AccuWeather hurricane experts forecast 11-16 named storms, representing a near-average season.
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