Artemis II splashdown forecast: Favorable Pacific conditions expected for astronauts' return
The Artemis II crew is set to return to Earth, splashing down in the Pacific Ocean on Friday evening off the coast of Southern California.
Bernie Rayno takes a look at what’s expected as Artemis II splashes down into the waters off Southern California Friday.
Weather conditions are shaping up to cooperate for Friday’s planned splashdown of NASA’s Artemis II capsule off the Southern California coast, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
The Artemis II mission launched on April 1 from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, sending astronauts on a journey of more than 695,000 miles that included a lunar flyby around the far side of the moon. The crew is now set to return to Earth, splashing down in the Pacific Ocean on Friday at 5:07 p.m. PDT (8:07 p.m. EDT) somewhere between Baja California, Mexico, and San Diego, California. The exact location will be announced later this week.
Mission controllers and recovery crews stationed at sea will continue to monitor conditions closely in the hours leading up to splashdown, as strict weather criteria must be met to ensure a safe recovery of the crew and spacecraft.
So far, the forecast is encouraging.
"Conditions are expected to be relatively calm, with modest west-southwest winds and manageable 3- to 5-foot waves. There is currently a 20% chance of a shower Friday afternoon. The risk of lightning is low," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick said.
NASA guidelines require that no rain or thunderstorms occur within 30 nautical miles of the recovery site. In addition, wave heights must remain below 6 feet and winds under 25 knots (29 mph) to allow recovery boats to safely reach the capsule and crew.
Feerick said those thresholds are expected to be met, though a few variables remain.
"Waves should be under 6 feet, and winds need to stay below 25 knots for the recovery boats. The slight chance of a shower and wave heights are the main weather variables to watch," he added.
For splashdown and recovery operations, teams rely on satellite, radar and surface observations to assess conditions in real time. Among the most critical factors are wave height, wind speed, cloud cover and visibility, all of which play a role in determining whether recovery efforts can proceed safely.
While a stray shower cannot be ruled out, the overall setup points to a relatively smooth return for Artemis II — provided conditions hold steady through splashdown.
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