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Severe storms finally on the move in central US

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Updated May 21, 2021 1:09 AM EST

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Rotating supercell accompanied by mammatus clouds loom over Lubbock, Texas, on May 17.

Folks across the central United States are gearing up for severe weather featuring hail, damaging wind gusts, downpours and even isolated tornadoes to develop across the High Plains into Thursday night.

While a potent spring storm brings snow to the northern Rockies, AccuWeather meteorologists are carefully watching the potential for severe thunderstorms just to the east.

As low pressure continues to strengthen over the Northwest throughout Thursday, the energy from the system will trigger isolated thunderstorms, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike LeSeney.

These storms will initiate over the higher, mountainous terrain during the afternoon and then drift northeastward over the High Plains late Thursday and through the evening, according to LeSeney.

Severe storms can impact places like Gillette and Cheyenne, Wyoming, and Scottsbluff, Nebraska, into the evening Thursday. Meanwhile in Rapid City, South Dakota, the storms will likely hold off until late Thursday evening or early Thursday night.

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"The conditions are not primed for widespread severe thunderstorms; however, the widely separated thunderstorms that do develop and move into the High Plains later Thursday may contain large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a tornado," said LeSeney.

On Thursday evening, one tornado was spotted in Harris County, Texas.

Even without intense rain or hail, severe impacts of the dry variety can be just as dangerous.

The National Weather Service office in Cheyenne warned residents of the dangers of microbursts, localized columns of sinking air in a thunderstorm and their effect on areas impacted by wildfires. These microbursts can create powerful wind gusts that can take down weak or dead trees and cause property damage.

"Initially, large hail is expected to be the main risk," said Adamson. However, both large hail and damaging winds will be possible as storms move eastward and northeastward through the evening.

Rainfall from these storms can be beneficial to the region, considering nearly 30% of Colorado and 20% of South Dakota are experiencing extreme drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Rapid City has only received a third of an inch of rainfall so far this month, much less than the nearly 2 inches it usually measures by this point in May.

Still, flash flooding remains a risk with this bout of severe weather in many areas. Cheyenne has received over 2 inches of rain this month, far ahead of the average 1.32 inches of rain so far for May.

Although river levels are not particularly high, storms can drop a large amount of rain in a short amount of time.

"Since any thunderstorm could contain downpours, motorists along interstates 25, 80 and 90 will want to slow down to avoid the risk of hydroplaning," Adamson said.

Anyone who is traveling and experiences ponding on roadways is urged to turn around and find an alternate route if possible.

"The thunderstorms should then weaken as they move into northeastern Montana and western North Dakota overnight," Adamson said.

After these storms, thunderstorm activity is expected to continue on and off across the region into the weekend, but severe risk will be greatly diminished and daytime temperatures are anticipated to dive.

Rapid City's high temperature Saturday is forecast to be in the upper 50s F, over 10 degrees below the usual high of near 70 F the city is used to this time of year.

Next week, waves of energy will move through the area allowing for the potential for additional snowfall across the northern Rocky Mountains and perhaps the High Plains of Montana, according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

"Any accumulations from these waves of energy would likely be limited to higher terrain locations," added Pastelok.

Related:

Giant May snowstorm to unload feet of snow in Montana
Storm chasers have more to worry about than just extreme weather
Everything you need to know about hail
How to safely shelter in place if you ran out of time to evacuate before severe weather strikes

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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