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Will Chicago finally snap its snow drought before the end of the year?

A pair of storms are racing towards the Great Lakes, fueled by cold air from Canada. For many, this will make for hazardous post-Christmas travel, but will it be enough to snap Chicago's snowless streak?

By Alyssa Glenny, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Published Dec 24, 2021 10:47 AM EDT | Updated Dec 27, 2021 2:09 PM EDT

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Emmy Victor reports from a busy O'Hare in Chicago, where many people are traveling for a long holiday weekend.

Chicagoans holding out hope for snow by the New Year may be out of luck.

Less than a week away from rewriting the city's record for its longest snowless streak, forecasters say the 290-day record from 2012 has a strong chance to fall before the calendar flips to 2022.

As of Dec. 26, Chicago has gone 286 days without seeing measurable snow. While the area has observed a few flakes so far this season, it has not met the criteria of being measurable. With the city ground remaining snow-free, this year has already set a new mark for the latest date with no measurable snow, which previously stood at Dec. 20, 2012.

Measurable snowfall is determined by an accumulation of 0.1 of an inch or greater of snow.

Looking ahead, lingering warmth will continue to stifle any snowfall hopes, even despite the arrival of a stormy weather pattern to the region.

Into the middle of this week, three storms are expected to traverse across the Midwest and southern Canada, bringing rain and snow to the region. Locations farther north, such as North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, will likely face the brunt of the winter weather early this week.

The first storm shifted into the Dakotas on Sunday evening and will continue eastward across Lake Superior through Monday.

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Accumulating snow fell in cities such as Green Bay, Wisconsin, Minneapolis and Fargo, North Dakota, with slippery travel from the storm.

But in Chicago, the air was too warm for snow on Monday. Instead, rain fell and there was even thunder and lightning in some locations.

The snow-free ground of Chicago awaits its first measurable snowfall of the year. (AccuWeather/Emmy Victor)

"The second storm Tuesday into Tuesday night could bring snow to the same places as the first storm, mainly from North Dakota to northern Michigan," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll said.

Just enough cold air may sneak back in during Monday night to set the stage for a brief period of snow on Tuesday around Chicago. AccuWeather is projecting a coating to an inch around Chicagoland with the region on the edge of a couple of inches of snow to the north and just rain to the south.

By Wednesday, the temperatures around Chicago will be noticeably cooler and closer to normal for this time of December. The chilly pattern is expected to continue into the weekend.

Should 0.1 of an inch of snow or sleet fail to occur in Chicago on Tuesday, another storm will pass close to the region during Wednesday night. Once again, just enough cold air may be around as that storm moves by to the south to allow for a period of snow in the city. The Chicago metro area will be on the northern edge of the storm’s precipitation shield.

How common is a Chicago white Christmas?

Typically, Chicago residents can anticipate the average first snow in Chicago around Halloween. Then, by Nov. 18, the city normally will have observed their first measurable snowfall, and the typical first 1-inch snowfall occurs by Dec. 7.

But how often does the city experience a white Christmas? In a typical year, those chances are roughly between 50 to 60 percent. A white Christmas is defined by the National Weather Service as at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.

This year, however, the chances for a white Christmas in Chicago have gone by the wayside as a result of the mild conditions.

Last December, Chicago O'Hare International Airport reported a light snow accumulation of 0.2 of an inch prior to Christmas on the 24th. The high temperature on Christmas Day was a brisk 22 degrees Fahrenheit, then dropped to a low of 8 degrees Christmas night. This year, forecasters say it will be a much different story with a forecast high of 46 F and the overnight low expected to drop below freezing at 30 F.

The weather pattern is currently being influenced by a weather phenomenon called La Niña, which typically results in a colder-than-normal winter for the Midwest and Great Lakes with snowy spells throughout the season, according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. However, with generally moderate and above-average temperatures in the forecast, the city will likely continue its snow drought into the new year.

Related:

Tiny new safety feature on snowplows could save lives
Countdown begins: NORAD's Santa tracker is up & running for 67th year
Rescuers find 2 babies miraculously saved from tornado in bathtub

For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.

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