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News / Winter Weather

Late-season snowfall to eye Midwest, Great Lakes

By Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Apr 19, 2021 1:33 PM EST

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Residents from Kansas to Michigan may wonder if the calendar flipped back to March, as a hazardous storm threatens to bring late-season snow and more intense cold this week.

AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a potent cold front that was already producing snow from Montana, Wyoming and Colorado to South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa on Monday. That storm is forecast to progress eastward.

This cold air across the center of the country early in the week will set the stage for a narrow swath of snow to continue to stretch across the Midwest to the Great Lakes from Tuesday through Wednesday.

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Dry conditions will hold across the Midwest into Monday evening, following highs in the mid-50s to low 60s, while the snow unfolds farther west. Then, temperatures will come crashing down from west to east Monday night as the storm approaches.

Snow is forecast to spread across portions of Illinois, Indiana and southern Michigan during Tuesday afternoon and then part of Ohio during Tuesday night.

"This storm will be rather fast-moving as it races into the Midwest. As such, snowfall amounts over 4 or 5 inches are likely to be limited southwest of the Great Lakes," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis.

At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists expect up to a few inches of snow to fall from southern Missouri to Indiana during the day Tuesday, including cities like Kansas City and Indianapolis. During the day, conditions will be marginally cold enough in parts of the Ohio Valley for snow to accumulate. Since Chicago will be both on the northern edge of the snow area and the snow is forecast to fall during the middle of the day, it may be a challenge for more than an inch or two of snow to fall on the city.

As the storm moves through the lower Great Lakes region Tuesday night, the cooler conditions and slightly slower movement of the storm itself should allow for higher snowfall totals, Travis added.

A heavier swath of steady snow is likely to stretch from northern Missouri, through the southernmost portion of Ontario and into far northern Maine. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches is possible with this storm as it moves northeast.

Leaves have not emerged on the trees over much of the zone expected to get accumulating snow, but buds have emerged and blossoming has begun. This can cause more snow to adhere to the trees than usual, especially since the snow is likely to be wet. The added weight of the snow combined with the weight of sap now flowing up into the branches can cause some tree limbs to sag and break, which can bring down power lines and cause power outages.

While much of the accumulating snow across the region may be on mainly on non-paved surfaces, it is not too late in the season for slippery roads to develop.

Snow may cause travel disruptions throughout the storm, or any wet or slushy areas on roads could freeze Tuesday night as temperatures are expected to dip below freezing in many locations.

Another wave of cold is forecast to filter in behind the storm, more intense than the cold preceding it. In fact, Tuesday night as overnight low temperatures will be near-record levels in Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago and Indianapolis.

"The source region of the air mass is north of the Arctic Circle, and it is plowing southward across central and northern Canada," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll explained.

The record low of 29 degrees for Kansas City was set back in 1982 and the city has a shot for tying that record Tuesday night. St. Louis may also come within striking distance of the record low of 32 degrees set back in 1904 with the low set to reach 33 degrees. Indianapolis and Chicago will also experience near-record cold Tuesday night.

"To add perspective, if this pattern was occurring in mid-January or mid-February, temperatures would likely be well below zero at night over a large portion of the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes," Doll continued.

In the wake of the midweek storm, cold will linger but dry conditions will prevail across much of the Midwest and Northeast that will see accumulating snowfall. Temperatures will remain 10-20 degrees below normal through Friday, but by next weekend, a pocket of mild air could bring conditions to near normal for this time of year.

Related:

Old Man Winter holds the central US in his icy grip
April Arctic cold, snow to blast Rockies
Wintry weather to strike again in the Northeast

Many of the cities in the path of this storm, like Kansas City, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis and Detroit have been well below average for late-season snowfall since March 1, 2021. For example, Chicago has only picked up about 2 inches of snow since March 1, while the average snowfall during that time is close to 7 inches. Detroit is another city that has not seen its normal share of late-season snowfall, with the city coming in with less than 1 inch of snow since March 1, versus the average of around 9 inches.

The lesser snowfall amounts have lead to abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions across parts of the region, according to the US Drought Monitor.

Current drought status for the Midwest for April 13, 2021 from the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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