Rain, locally severe storms to focus on southern US as NASCAR season opener kicks off
During the extended holiday weekend a rainstorm threatens to soak some outdoor plans in the southern United States. Thunderstorms will erupt as well and some may be severe.
Severe thunderstorms are back in the forecast for Valentine’s Day weekend, including in Louisiana just ahead of Mardi Gras.
A storm will travel eastward across the Southeast through Sunday evening with a swath of drenching rain extending along portions of the Gulf Coast.
The same storm has the potential to bring the first severe weather in months to some locations. Rain may hold off for the Daytona 500 Sunday, but it will be a close call.
Chase Briscoe, (19) runs during NASCAR Daytona 500 qualifying, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026, in Daytona, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
More than a dozen states from the Plains to the Gulf Coast and the Southeast have already recieved soaking rain from this storm. Preceding soil conditions vary from county to county across the 1 million-square-mile zone of the south-central and southeastern United States.
Some areas have adequate soil moisture, but some places are in exceptional drought, with rivers down to nearly a trickle.
Much of the 1 million-square-mile zone has already picked up 0.50-1.00 inch of rain from the storm. However, some areas projected to see thunderstorms through Sunday night could contend with totals around 2-4 inches of rain, forecasters warn.
It is in these pockets that flash, urban and poor-drainage area flooding could occur through Sunday night.
Motorists will encounter slick conditions, poor visibility from blowing spray in heavy traffic and areas of fog.
Through Sunday evening, some risk of severe thunderstorms will continue to advance to the east from northern Florida to southern Georgia and the far southern tip of South Carolina.
While torrential downpours and damaging wind gusts will pose the greatest threat from the severe weather this weekend, a handful of the strongest thunderstorms may produce a tornado.
How is the weather stacking up for Florida this weekend?
Stock car racing fans on site at Daytona Beach, Florida, will have to be mindful of current conditions as a front approaches from the northwest into Sunday night increases the chance of downpours with lightning across the region.
For those heading to the theme parks in central Florida, Sunday evening to Monday morning will bring the highest chance of downpours during the extended holiday weekend for some. The downpours will be produced by the storm's trailing cold front. Some of the storms that rumble through central Florida Sunday night can be locally heavy to severe, with strong winds and frequent lightning.
Highs will be in the 70s at Daytona and near 80 near Orlando on Sunday and in the 70s for both locations Monday.
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