Even warmer weather awaits central, eastern US later in February
“The most intense cold of the winter is largely behind the Eastern and Central states, but that doesn’t mean winter is over," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "However, new risks will arise."
Ice jams can be a fascinating sight, but they’re powerful, unpredictable and capable of causing major damage in minutes.
A surge of warm weather is lurking for cold-weary parts of the central and eastern United States during the third week of February. The warmup will be welcome by millions, but it may also cause some problems.
“The most intense cold of the winter is largely behind the Eastern and Central states, but that doesn’t mean winter is over," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "However, new risks will arise due to the warmup as colder, stormier conditions shift to the West."
Persistent Arctic cold had icy consequences
The period from Jan. 24 through Feb. 9 brought some of the coldest conditions in years to many areas in the central and eastern U.S. Temperatures during these 17 days were more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit below the historical average.
During the period, temperature departures of 17 degrees below average were observed in Pittsburgh, 15 degrees below in Buffalo, New York, and 14.7 degrees below in the nation's capital. Highs in the single digits, teens and 20s were common, as were nights below zero and in the single digits.
Farther south and west, temperatures averaged 6-12 degrees below the historical average, leading to some of the hardest freezes and citrus crop damage in many years.
The persistent cold has caused a significant buildup of ice on streams, rivers and bays across the Northeast and Midwest.
What could happen as the warmup increases?
This week to early next week should provide some equilibrium for the mid-Atlantic region with a warmer weather pattern, strengthening sun and longer days -- despite a couple of rounds of snow or a wintry mix this weekend.
There will be much less energy demand, and many people may be able to shed heavy winter clothing. Some individuals in poor health may be able to get out and get some fresh air.
Record highs will be challenged over the Central states this weekend. Higher temperatures will warm many hearts on Valentine's Day.
However, with any thaw after an extended period of frigid conditions and buildup of ice, the potential for ice jams and ice-jam flooding will increase in non-tidal portions of streams and rivers.
“Rising temperatures will melt snow and ice over the next few weeks, which can trigger ice jams and river flooding earlier than usual, especially along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers," Pastelok said.
Many of the secondary rivers in the Midwest and Northeast will be at risk for ice-jam flooding. In the Northeast, these include the Susquehanna, Delaware, Allegheny and Monongahela, to name a few, as well as their tributary rivers and small streams.
Ice covers the confluence of the Allegheny, left rear, Ohio, center, and Monongahela Rivers, right rear, in downtown Pittsburgh, Jan. 30, 2026. Since this photo was taken, ice coverage on area rivers has increased and thickened due to persistent frigid conditions. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Depending on the track of multiple storms during the third and fourth weeks of February, some may push well to the north into the Great Lakes region, drawing much warmer air into the East and portions of the Central states. Should those storms bring heavy rain and surging temperatures, with some rivers clogged with ice, moderate to major flooding could result.
Temperatures in portions of the Central and Eastern states later during week three to week four of February may be 10-20 degrees above the historical average. Only deep snow cover and extensive ice on lakes may hold temperatures back a bit. Otherwise, widespread highs in the 40s, 50s and near 60 are likely on some days during the period in the Midwest and Northeast.
In the Southeast, highs on many days will be in the 60s, with some days with highs in the 70s to near 80 probable.
The surging warmth and storms tracking toward the Great Lakes or the Ohio Valley could set the stage for rounds of severe weather in the Southern states for the remainder of the month and into March.
But, at least from an energy demand and heating bill standpoint, no additional outbreaks of severe to extreme cold are expected for the rest of the winter, according to AccuWeather long-range experts.
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