Drought to deluge: Florida sees sharp weather split in September
Florida has faced a sharp contrast in recent weeks, with frequent downpours soaking the southern half of the state while the panhandle and northern counties of the peninsula have seen little to no rainfall.
In today’s Forecast Feed, AccuWeather’s Geoffery Cornish takes a look at the tropics.
Since August, Florida has experienced two contrasting weather patterns. Central and southern parts of the peninsula have seen frequent downpours, while portions of the panhandle have remained dry for weeks. Some changes are possible in the coming days, but they are expected to be modest.
The same pattern that has streams drying up and lawns turning brown in much of the eastern third of the United States has dipped southward into northern Florida. Meanwhile, the dry air has been meeting its match over the southern half of the peninsula as a plume of moisture continues to stream northeastward from the Gulf.
The southern half of the Florida Peninsula has been the most active region for rainfall in August and September and has frequently disrupted outdoor activities, including beachgoers and golfers. At times, the frequent downpours have extended over the central counties of the state, home to popular theme parks.
Through Sept. 19, Orlando has picked up 6.35 inches, nearly double its historical average for the month to date. Farther south, Miami has been much wetter, with 14.47 inches of rain for the same period, which is nearly two and a half times the historical average. There have been incidents of flash flooding.
In contrast, downpours have largely avoided Tampa where 0.56 of an inch has fallen since the start of September, only about 12% of the historical average. Conditions have become increasingly dry across the northern counties of the peninsula and through the Florida Panhandle. There has only been 0.30 of an inch of rain in Jacksonville, Gainesville has received only 0.03 of an inch, and it hasn't rained a drop in Tallahassee all month.
Due to weeks of little or no rain, soil conditions in the northern counties of Florida range from abnormally dry to moderate drought.
Little change is expected this week. However, the intensity and coverage of downpours over the southern part of the Peninsula will ease off some.
This week, there will be some opportunities for rain in the northern part of the state, especially over the panhandle, where drought conditions have persisted. Despite the higher chances of some rain, the pattern does not indicate that widespread or persistent rain is coming to these dry areas just yet.
High pressure off the southern Atlantic Coast may be a dominating influence through much of this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists will monitor the western Caribbean, southeastern Gulf, and waters surrounding the Florida Peninsula toward the end of the month and start of October for potential tropical development.
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