Snow, ice, rain and severe weather coming to central, eastern U.S.
Storms rolling out of the West will deliver a mix of hazards this week: snow and ice for parts of the northern tier, increasing severe storm potential and a higher risk of ice jam flooding as thawing accelerates.
Bernie Rayno details a midweek storm beginning Wednesday, spreading accumulating snow near the Great Lakes into upstate New York and northern New England, with strong storms south to Pennsylvania and the Mid-South.
As warm air surges across much of the central and eastern United States this week, a potent storm will bring severe weather to some areas, while rounds of snow and ice linger over the northern tier. As the thaw progresses, the potential for ice jams will increase.
A series of potent storms will hammer California and parts of the West this week. These storms will traverse the northern Rockies, then emerge over the North Central states and drift into the Northeast.
High winds to boost central U.S. wildfire risk
"One such storm early this week could bring record low pressure levels in the zone from Montana and Wyoming to the Dakotas, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
Initially, that storm will generate strong winds from the Rockies to the Plains during the first half of this week.
"The combination of strong winds, dry brush and warm, dry air will boost the risk of wildfires over a large portion of the High Plains, where there is no snow on the ground," Buckingham warned.
Snow, ice to continue to hang on
On the colder side of this storm, the heaviest of snow east of the Rockies will be over the Canadian Prairies, but some accumulating snow will fall in a narrow band that extends into part of the Great Lakes region and the Northeast.
In the Central states, the heaviest snow, where a general 6-12 inches is forecast, will extend from the northern part of North Dakota to the northern part of Minnesota.
Moderate snowfall on the order of 3-6 inches is foreseen from northern Michigan to portions of northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire at midweek.
On the southern edge of the snow, pockets of freezing rain and sleet will form. From Tuesday night to Wednesday, this zone will extend from near the North and South Dakota border to parts of northern Michigan, central New York and central New England.
Severe weather threat to increase on Wednesday, Thursday
South of the ice, rounds of rain and even thunderstorms are expected.
Since the first storm system is forecast to weaken as it moves eastward over the Upper Midwest, thunderstorms with it farther south over the Midwest may be limited on Wednesday. However, there may still be a few locally severe storms on Wednesday from eastern Illinois to western Pennsylvania, and from the southern tier of Michigan to along the Ohio River in Kentucky.
As a second, and likely stronger, storm rolls across the North Central states from Wednesday to Thursday, the likelihood of severe weather will be significantly higher.
Locally severe storms may erupt on Wednesday over portions of the Plains. However, Thursday could be a significantly severe weather day across much of the Midwest. Thursday's severe weather threat includes the potential for multiple tornadoes.
"If this pans out the way we are concerned for severe weather on Thursday, it could be a nasty spring snap back in an area that was adversely affected by snow and ice in recent weeks," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
The combination of an ongoing thaw and rain over portions of the Upper Midwest, the central Appalachians and parts of the Northeast will increase the potential for ice jams and ice jam flooding with the two storms this week.
Above-freezing temperatures during the day and below-freezing temperatures at night, for the most part, have allowed a more gradual thaw to occur up until this week.
But as longer-duration warmth leads to more snowmelt, the surge of water entering streams and rivers may trigger a rapid breakup of the ice cover. Where ice jams occur, there is a risk of significant flooding in unprotected areas upstream of the jams.
Ice fishermen are urged to be extremely cautious this week, as ice cover on lakes may begin to break, potentially preventing an exit to shore.
Where warm, moist air flows over cold ground and snow or ice cover, dense fog may form, further aggravating travel in the Midwest and Northeast this week.
It is possible a storm that swings through the Midwest and Northeast next weekend could track cold enough to bring snow to parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and coastal Northeast.
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