Where’s the rain? Dry pattern grips the East
Many Eastern states face worsening drought as rainfall remains scarce, stressing agriculture, waterways and fall foliage, though signs of Gulf moisture could bring relief to parts of the Central states this week.
Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux appeared on AccuWeather Early to share insights into how both long-term and flash droughts are impacting Vermont’s agricultural landscape.
While a coastal storm brought some needed rain to parts of the mid-Atlantic at midweek, the prospects for widespread soaking rain are very limited for much of the East into early this week.
The same dip in the jet stream and large wedge of dry air that has protected the Atlantic and Gulf coasts from organized tropical systems and limited rainfall over much of the eastern third of the nation in recent weeks will continue to dominate the weather pattern through at least this weekend.
The dryness has been building and expanding since early August to the point where there are patches of moderate to severe drought.
The reduction of Gulf moisture during the second half of the summer has been significant compared to the first half.
Humidity levels were consistently very high from June through much of July. The excess humidity triggered flash flood incidents practically at the drop of a hat in the eastern half of the nation.
Some areas have gone weeks without rain over the past month and a half.
The number of thunderstorms typically dwindles significantly during the latter part of the summer and into the fall. The hard rain from thunderstorms tends to run off moreso than soak in deep to the soil, but it does help to keep streams flowing and reservoirs filled.
Storms during this period tend to occur when a strong storm system or front is moving through, and even then, there is no guarantee there will be thunder and lightning due to limited moisture and much lower energy from the sun.
A cool front that dropped across the Northeast on Friday and Friday night would typically set off a significant amount of thunderstorm activity if it occurred in June. But with no Gulf moisture coming in, only a limited number of thunderstorms and showers occurred.
Dry conditions are in store for stock car racing activities in New Hampshire this weekend. The chilly conditions can bring a frost or freeze to portions of central and northern New England, effectively marking an end to the growing season.
Campers are urged to use extreme caution with open flames and sparks due to the tinder-dry conditions.
Even though evaporation rates are much lower in mid-September, compared to mid-June, very limited rainfall has caused many lawns to turn brown and enter winter dormancy weeks earlier than the historical average.
The prolonged dryness has stressed many trees, causing leaves to change color prematurely and drop quickly. Those planning road trips to view fall foliage may need to move their trip forward or shift their travels farther south as the leaf change is ahead of average in many areas due to drought conditions.
The lack of rain is becoming serious in parts of the northeastern and central United States, with some small streams drying up and larger rivers reduced to a fraction of their usual flow.
The lack of rain is affecting hay production, which many farmers rely on to feed their livestock during the winter.
The deepening drought is affecting agriculture and fishing, and it may soon impact drinking water supplies as water tables drop and levels in wells and reservoirs decline in the region.
This image of the Greenbrier River, near Redick, West Virginia, was captured during the third week of September 2025 and is an example of low water levels in area streams and rivers in the Northeast. Even more severe conditions are present in New England and parts of the Mississippi Valley. (National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska/County Office/csmith)
"The groundwater levels in West Virginia are near or even lower than last year during the exceptional, historical drought that peaked around this same time," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. "In addition to the East, another area starving for moisture is Missouri and Arkansas, where farmers have just about given up."
Some impacts are already being felt on the Mississippi River with a narrowing and shallowing of the shipping channel. Mississippi River levels are forecast to drop even more in the coming days before stabilizing or possibly turning around a bit. Levels are not quite as extreme as those of 2023 and 2022 in most areas just yet.
Signs of wetter days ahead?
There are some signs of a pattern change that should at least favor moisture flow from the Gulf into the Central states. Some moisture has allowed thunderstorms over the Great Plains in the past couple of weeks, and that trend should shift farther to the east this week.
There are some of the secondary rivers over the Plains that are adequately watered. Rivers in South Dakota, such as the Bad, Big Sioux and James are experiencing minor flooding in some sections.
Parts of the Ohio and Mississippi valleys and the Ozark Mountains could receive a lot of rain quickly —so much so that localized flash flooding will occur with the pattern change this week.
One spot that will have no trouble getting rain is the central and southern part of Florida, where thunderstorms will rumble almost daily into this week. However, there has been great contrast of rainfall across the state since August and the start of September.
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