Gabrielle may eye Bermuda as a hurricane; Is Caribbean next for a storm?
After some struggles, Gabrielle is forecast to strengthen and bring wind, rain, and rough surf to Bermuda, with indirect impacts possible for the Caribbean and U.S. East Coast. A new threat may arise in the Caribbean.
In today’s Forecast Feed, AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which formed on Wednesday, may become a hurricane in the coming days. Direct impacts are possible in Bermuda, while indirect impacts—such as rough surf or rip currents—may affect parts of the northeastern Caribbean and the United States. AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring two other zones for tropical development.
The unusual lull in Atlantic tropical activity during the climatological peak of hurricane season is at an end. The basin had not seen a tropical storm since Fernand's demise on Aug. 29. Not since 1992, during the gap between hurricanes Andrew and Bonnie, has there been anything similar.
The dashed red line represents AccuWeather meteorologists’ forecast path for Gabrielle's eye. The gray shaded areas on either side of the forecast path represent alternative paths the storm could take based on changing steering conditions. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will extend well beyond the eye's track.
The spread-out tropical storm will continue to battle dry air and wind shear near its center on Thursday and will remain poorly organized into the weekend. It is even possible that Gabrielle could slip back to a tropical depression or rainstorm for a time. However, reorganization and strengthening are anticipated over the weekend.
This image of Gabrielle was captured on Friday, Sept. 19, 2025. Convection was seen bubbling near the storm's center. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"Interests in the northeastern Caribbean and Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of Gabrielle, as any shift in its track could bring wind and rain to the Leeward Islands late this week and this weekend," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Gabrielle is forecast to bring rough surf, gusty winds and localized flooding to Bermuda late this weekend into early next week. However, that is highly dependent on its track and strength.
Periods of heavy rain are forecast to fall across Bermuda as Gabrielle moves by, most likely to the east of the islands. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 4 inches.
Rainfall amounts and the strength of the wind will be highly dependent on the exact track of the storm.
Gusty winds of 40-60 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph are expected across Bermuda from Monday night to next Wednesday, due to Gabrielle.
Should Gabrielle fail to reach hurricane intensity and remain poorly organized, much less rain and wind would occur around Bermuda. Rough seas would end up being the only significant concern.
While significant impacts to the U.S. are not expected at this time, rough surf and dangerous rip currents will be possible along the East Coast during the middle to late portions of next week, with Gabrielle forecast to track near Bermuda.
What else is out there besides Gabrielle?
This wide view of the Atlantic basin was captured on Friday Sept. 19, 2025. Gabrielle can be seen near the center of the image. Other batches of thunderstorms (bright colors) can be seen scattered about the basin to the left and to the right. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two tropical waves of note.
"One tropical wave is struggling to organize at this time as it is moving through an area with atmospheric conditions that are challenging for tropical development," DaSilva said. "Still, people in the Caribbean should monitor forecast updates on this feature closely through the weekend as development conditions may change.” It is this wave that could cause trouble in the western Caribbean late in the month, should it survive.
A second tropical wave that is moving westward from Africa has a low chance of developing from Monday to Thursday of next week. This is the area highlighted over the central Atlantic.
Thousands of miles to the west, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to watch the zone from the western Caribbean to the Gulf and have stepped up the development risk.
Development in the Caribbean or Gulf could be spurred by a tropical wave that fails to form over the open Atlantic but then encounters more favorable conditions farther to the west.
While no development is imminent in this area, waters remain very warm in the region, as well as a large part of the Atlantic basin. Tropical development typically requires ocean temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Portions of the Gulf and Caribbean are experiencing water temperatures well into the 80s to near 90.
When tropical storms and hurricanes form in the western Caribbean or Gulf, there is much less preparation time compared to a similar system that forms over the Atlantic and heads toward Central America or the U.S.
"It takes more than warm water for tropical storms and hurricanes to form," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "When combative winds (wind shear) ease and dry air is replaced with moisture and waters are warm, the chances of development increase substantially.
Wind shear is dropping off in some areas, and dry air is less extensive, compared to recent weeks and the historic lull in tropical activity over the Atlantic.
After Gabrielle, the next name on the list for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is Humberto.
AccuWeather's hurricane experts are projecting a total of six to nine hurricanes for the season.
Thus far, Erin has been the only hurricane of the year. Erin went on to become the only major hurricane and Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
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