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Triple-digit heat to make blistering comeback in the West

By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jun 19, 2020 5:20 PM EDT

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A helicopter took water from Rose Canyon Lake to fight the Bighorn Fire farther down in the Catalina Mountains near Tucson, Arizona.

Wildfires across Arizona and surrounding states have charred thousands of acres and forced thousands to flee their homes on short notice over the last week. However, AccuWeather forecasters warn that most of the West has yet to enter peak wildfire season, and weather conditions through the week could lead to an expanding threat.

A series of storms trimmed temperatures across much of the West this past week but also unleashed gusty winds, which fueled the rapid spread of wildfires in parts of the Southwest.

Going forward, forecasters predict that the pattern will flip, allowing for much less wind, but instead allowing for sweltering heat to build across the West.

"A ridge of high pressure will build across the West, replacing the stormy pattern that persisted for much of the past week," AccuWeather Western Weather Expert Brian Thompson said. "While this will help alleviate the wind in most areas, the heat under scorching sunshine will build."

By Sunday afternoon, temperatures will generally be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late June across the West.

"Early this week, widespread triple-digit heat will bake many of the valleys and deserts of the Southwest with temperatures cracking 110 degrees Fahrenheit in the lower deserts of southeastern California and Arizona," said AccuWeather Summer Camp Director and Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

"With heat expected to hold firm through the upcoming week, residents are strongly encouraged to take the necessary steps to keep cool and avoid heat-related illnesses: Drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing and avoid strenuous activities during the midday and afternoon hours (the hottest times of the day)," she said.

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For Father's Day, it might be best to plan indoor celebrations in the comfort of air conditioning.

In Tucson, where firefighters are battling the Bighorn Fire, temperatures are expected to approach 110 degrees by the middle of the week. The normal high temperatures in Tucson for this time of year is 102 F. Due to the combination of the intense heat and extra protective gear, firefighters can be especially prone to heat-related illness.

Outdoor enthusiasts visiting places like Yosemite National Park will also have to be prepared to prevent dehydration, heat exhaustion or even heatstroke. Temperatures in Yosemite Valley are expected to climb to the mid-90s by the midweek. Normal high temperatures are in the lower 80s.

Related:

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AccuWeather forecasters break down what to expect this summer across the US
Bush Fire doubles in size as strong winds force thousands to evacuate
Heat exhaustion vs. heatstroke: What are the warning signs and how should you react?

"It may be tempting to jump into area rivers to cool off, but many are still running swiftly and are still dangerously cold to enter. Anyone who leaps into these rivers would be at risk of suffering from cold water shock," Pydynowski warned.

Cold water shock can occur when people enter bodies of water with a temperature of 77 F or lower. It's the body’s immediate response to entering a cold water and can trigger a reflex to gasp in air, which may lead to hyperventilation and fatal drowning.

Temperatures in most of California's Central Valley will also challenge or surpass the century mark every day this week. With the heat, sunshine and little wind, air will stagnate, with poor air quality developing in parts of the region.

Major population centers will be especially susceptible to worsening air quality through the week, including Sacramento and Fresno, California, as well as other cities in the Southwest such as Las Vegas and Phoenix.

There will be one place in the West to seek some heat relief, however. "A daily marine layer, typical of June on the West Coast, will keep areas at the immediate coast much cooler than those even just a little bit inland," Thompson said.

"While the ocean is also too cool to jump right into, especially along the coast of Central and Northern California, the beaches will offer relief from the heat with highs expected to top out in the lower to mid-70s in San Francisco, Santa Barbara and San Diego," Pydynowski added.

As the heat expands, so will the danger for wildfires. "We are entering primary fire season for the Northwest and much of the Rockies," Thompson said.

Much of the West is already suffering from drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The expanding heat and sunshine will further dry out much of the region, leaving it prone to rapidly spreading fires.

"The final days of June have the potential to be completely dry across much of the Northwest into the central Rockies. This will allow the brush and ground to dry out from the recent rain," Thompson said. "After the prolonged dry stretch, if a storm system or cold front stirs up some thunderstorms heading into July, the fire threat could be heightened."

Even though it's not the leading cause of sparking wildfires, lightning-ignited wildfires tend to burn more acreage across the U.S. Between 2014 and 2018, 51% of the average acreage burned in the country was a result of lightning-induced fires, according to a 2019 report from the Congressional Research Service.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios. 

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