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Repeated storms to raise flood threat in central US

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Mar 11, 2021 9:00 AM EST

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March has brought a much different change in pace for the weather across the central United States, and the weather is about to turn more active again -- but this time, in a different manner. After bitter cold and widespread wintry weather in February, March has featured higher-than-normal temperatures across the Central states, and the warmth built up to record levels that hadn't been reached since the 1800s in some cases early this week.

As storm systems move into the region through late this week and tap into the warmth and a surge of moisture, thunderstorms are likely to erupt.

Much of the Wednesday was dry until the late afternoon as the first storm's cold front will hung back farther to the north and west. By Wednesday evening, though, cities such as Kansas City, Missouri, and Emporia, Kansas dealt with thunderstorms.

Those traveling along Interstate 35 or I-70 should not let their guard down, even though most of the day was free of thunderstorms. The storms developed and ramped up quickly, with a few producing large hail and damaging winds.

By Thursday, the front will stall out and an area of low pressure will form along the front. The front will serve as a pathway for the storm to travel along. Since the front will not be moving very much, some areas will be at risk for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

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"Repeated downpours from portions of the south-central Plains to the Mississippi and Ohio valleys will greatly increase the risk of flash flooding late this week and into the weekend," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Reneé Duff.

Even though March has been dry, some of the same areas were inundated by heavy rain at the end of February. Therefore, the rain is not needed.

"With some rivers already running above flood stage in this corridor, the additional runoff could prolong the time it takes for water levels to recede, and perhaps trigger new river flooding elsewhere," Duff cautioned.

Given multiple days of rain over similar areas, at least several inches are expected.

"In total, the hardest-hit locales can pick up over half a foot of rainfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 11 inches possible," Duff said.

Some of the hardest-hit areas of central and eastern Kentucky will escape the heaviest of the rain this time, but heavy rain could fall over portions of the Mississippi River watershed. Some of the floodwaters from the heavy rain in Kentucky have worked their way through the lower part of the Ohio River, which then feeds into the Mississippi.

Away from the rivers, people will still need to exercise caution.

"Even in the absence of flooding problems, motorists can certainly expect to experience slowdowns on the major highways due to the downpours," Duff said.

By late in the week and over the weekend, severe weather may again become a threat, along with the continued flood risk.

Related:

Meteorological spring has arrived. Here's what to expect
AccuWeather's 2021 severe weather and tornado forecast
Developing storm could bury Denver under feet of snow

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