Tropical Rainstorm Cindy to sideswipe Bermuda, strike Atlantic Canada this week
AccuWeather forecasters say what’s left of Cindy could bring notable impacts to Bermuda and Atlantic Canada this week. Meanwhile, the first named storm of the 2023 East Pacific season has developed.
Outreach workers say scorching heat and afternoon storms have added to the anxiety and difficulty for people trying to rebound from Hurricane Ian in Florida.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is well underway, with three named storms developing in less than a month, and AccuWeather meteorologists say more impacts are in the forecast this week. Meanwhile, the first named tropical systems of the year spawned in the East Pacific Ocean.
The most recent tropical storm to form in the Atlantic basin was Cindy, which became the third named tropical system since the start of the season when it developed late on Thursday, June 22.
Currently designated as a tropical rainstorm by AccuWeather, Cindy was located over the open waters of the Atlantic, centered more than 500 miles to the south-southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday morning. At peak wind intensity, Cindy was a tropical storm with wind gusts of 60 mph. The storm has since lost wind intensity.
Even though Cindy's circulation and associated rainfall remained well away from land on Wednesday, the tropical system could still bring impacts to North America later this week.
The above satellite image shows Tropical Storm Cindy on Wednesday, June 23, 2023 as it churned across the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. (Photo/CIRRA/RAMMB)
"Up to this point, Cindy has largely been a non-factor in terms of overall impacts to land. However, that is expected to change in the later stages of this week into the weekend," said AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to track Cindy and expect the storm to turn northward early this week due to an approaching cold front that was bringing severe weather to the East Coast on Monday.
Tropical Rainstorm Cindy is first expected to track near the islands of Bermuda around the middle of the week. The exact track and timing of Cindy’s approach will depend on a number of factors, including how quickly the front along the East Coast moves out over the Atlantic Ocean.
"As of late, the tropical moisture associated with Cindy has been pulled to the northeast of the storm. Should this trend continue, the track of Cindy, in relation to Bermuda will determine how much rain the islands end up getting," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
The current Cindy Eye Path® takes the center of the storm just to the west of Bermuda, increasing the chances for heavier rainfall. AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 1-2 inches of rain for the islands with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 3 inches.
"Most of the rain will fall from Wednesday to Wednesday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "Thursday may bring gusty winds and sporadic showers along with rough seas about the islands."
Douty also warned that should Cindy track farther to the east, with the center of the storm passing east of Bermuda, the heaviest rain may end up well east of the islands, with Bermuda missing out on Cindy's heaviest rain.
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Cindy to set course for Atlantic Canada
Beyond Bermuda, the rainstorm’s potential impacts in Atlantic Canada were becoming clearer to AccuWeather forecasters.
The tropical rainstorm is expected to approach eastern parts of Nova Scotia from Friday to Saturday, bringing with it rounds of heavy, tropical rainfall.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1–2 inches are expected across New Brunswick, most of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island to eastern Quebec and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador. The highest rainfall totals, of about 2–4 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches, will be likely near and just east of Cindy's center at landfall.
Cindy's exact forward speed may prove to be a major factor in determining when the heaviest rain arrives in Atlantic Canada and how long it sticks around. This may ultimately impact the amount of rain the area receives.
Some gusty winds are possible as Cindy approaches land, particularly along coastal locations east of the storm's center. Rough seas and surf should also be anticipated late this week and through the weekend across Atlantic Canada.
Across the rest of the Atlantic Ocean, the atmospheric conditions that allowed storms like Cindy and Bret to strengthen over the last week have completely changed.
While the waters will remain warm in the basin, the strong wind shear that helped cause Cindy to lose wind intensity and displace the storm’s rainfall is likely to persist. This combination is likely to prevent the formation of any new named storms across the Atlantic this week, which is typical for this time of year.
East Pacific has basin's first named storm of the season
Unlike in the Atlantic, the East Pacific did not have any named storms until Tuesday. Disturbances that appeared to have potential earlier in June quickly fizzled.
However, the ocean waters to the south and west of Mexico were coming to life this week with a burst of tropical development.
The East Pacific hurricane annually begins on May 15, several weeks ahead of the Atlantic season which officially gets underway on June 1.
The National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Adrian on Tuesday afternoon, with a second storm forecast to develop later in the week. Following Adrian, Beatriz is the second storm on the list for the eastern Pacific 2023 hurricane season.
On Wednesday morning, Adrian became the eastern Pacific's first hurricane of the season.
Given the atmospheric pattern across the East Pacific, Adrian is unlikely to impact land directly. As any tropical system moves westward, it will move farther away from Mexico and Central America.
"The second zone of interest could be of more importance to residents of southern Mexico because there are strong indications that this storm would remain closer to the coast," Thornton explained.
In addition to the risks of strong rip currents and rough seas on the southern coast of Mexico, some outer rain bands may be able to reach land, making heavy downpours possible for cities like Puerto Escondido and Acapulco.
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