Tropical Storm Milton expected to strengthen into a major hurricane and target Florida
A dangerous, damaging and disruptive situation will unfold in Florida this week as Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to evolve into a major hurricane and deliver flooding downpours.
AccuWeather Correspondent Leslie Hudson is in Treasure Island, Florida, where cleanup and recovery efforts continue as the state now braces for another threat brewing in the tropics.
Even as Hurricane Helene was pressing toward the Florida coast, AccuWeather's team of expert meteorologists had been monitoring part of the Gulf of Mexico for yet another round of tropical trouble. On Saturday afternoon, Tropical Storm Milton formed, just hours after becoming a tropical depression, and it was expected to intensify and strike the Florida Peninsula this week as a major hurricane, with torrential rain, wind and the likelihood of flooding.
Thunderstorms have been persistently erupting in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the past few days. AccuWeather began to refer to the system as a tropical rainstorm late in the week to raise public awareness of the risk to lives and property and to assist in planning and preparation.
As Milton continues to churn over the warm Gulf waters over the next several days, it is expected to strengthen into a major, Category 3 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) before making landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida, on Wednesday.
“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “Milton could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with extreme impacts. This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and in friends in this area are prepared.”
Due to flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and life-threatening storm surge, Milton is a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
Besides torrential rainfall and flooding concerns, Milton can bring damaging winds that cause power outages and even tornadoes.
A general 4-8 inches of rain is forecast to fall on portions of central Florida, with heavier rain and higher totals of 8-12 inches expected for places like Tampa and Orlando. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for Milton is 30 inches.
Rainfall rates of several inches per hour can occur in the major metro areas, easily overwhelming the storm drainage system in cities such as Cape Coral, Naples, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Melbourne.
Even though much of Florida's soil is very sandy and can absorb heavy rain quickly, there will still be enough runoff that works into creeks, lakes and rivers to trigger flooding. Water levels may rise quickly on the smaller streams and lakes but may take a week or two to cycle through rivers such as the Peace, Imperial, Hillsborough, Myakka and St. Johns.
Strong winds in excess of 120 mph at landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 155 mph, can lead to long-lasting power outages and structural damage. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts can be experienced as far away as the eastern Carolinas to the Florida Keys.
The strong winds can help drive storm surge flooding along the coast, especially in the Tampa Bay area, where up to 15 feet of water on top of normal tides can cause life-threatening flooding and destruction at the coast.
"The feature will take an east-northeast track across the southern Gulf of Mexico where waters are sufficiently warm, in the 80s F, and wind shear, disruptive breezes, are low," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
The stronger Milton becomes before landfall, the greater the impacts from strong winds and storm surge. Regardless of strength, there can be locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and waterspouts.
Kirk to impact western Europe; Leslie still churning
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two tropical cyclones in the middle of the ocean.
Kirk rapidly strengthened last week and became the third major hurricane of the season. It has joined Helene and Beryl, which have reached at least Category 4 intensity. Leslie strengthened into hurricane status late last Friday, but is expected to slowly lose wind intensity throughout the week.
During the early week, Kirk will turn northeastward and is likely to bring significant impacts to parts of Ireland, the United Kingdom and the western European mainland as a formidable tropical wind and rainstorm.
Leslie is hundreds of miles southeast of Kirk and is forecast to track farther to the west but will still remain to the northeast of the Leeward Islands this week. Leslie will gradually lose wind intensity to Tropical Storm status throughout the week.
Both Kirk and Leslie will raise concerns for transatlantic vessels. Kirk has already generated monstrous seas. Wave heights near Kirk on Friday were estimated to be 35-45 feet.
As swells move outward from both storms, they will show up in the form of rough surf and frequent and strong rip currents along the northeast-facing beaches of the Caribbean, the United States Atlantic Coast, Atlantic Canada and the shores of western Europe from through the early week.
There have been a total of eight hurricanes, not yet counting Milton, in the Gulf of Mexico, so far in 2024 with 13 tropical depressions that went on to become named systems. There have been four named systems that made landfall in the U.S., along with an unnamed tropical rainstorm that blasted North Carolina in mid-September with torrential downpours and storm surge flooding.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger contributed to this story.
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