Polar vortex to keep frigid pattern locked over eastern US through much of February
The polar vortex will keep the freezer door wide open during much of Feburary, which will not only keep energy demands and the cost of heating homes and businesses high, but more winter storms will come calling.
As we say goodbye to January, what kind of weather do the first two weeks of February have in store across the U.S.?
Waves of frigid air will continue to be released into much of the eastern United States through at least the middle of the month. The ongoing pattern may trend stormier with areas of snow and ice potentially threatening to reach into large areas of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard in the coming weeks.
The frigid conditions have hundreds of millions of people reaching for the thermostat and adding layers of clothes to keep warm. The persistent cold will have heating bills soaring.
Not all cold patterns in winter are due to the polar vortex. However, this storm, which typically resides near the Arctic Circle and contains the coldest air, has shifted and weakened at times this winter, allowing frigid air to escape southward.
For many areas in the eastern half of the nation, the arctic outbreak that began in late January will continue into the first part of this week and will bring some of the most severe cold/lowest temperatures of the winter.
"Subsequent blasts of air that occur during the first seven to 10 days of February may not be quite as extreme," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "However, because the ongoing cold has led to a rapid increase in ice cover on the Great Lakes, the modifying effect of the shrinking open water is progressively being reduced."
This means that there will be less open warm water to take the edge off arctic air as it moves southward, and many areas now have an extensive snow cover, which further insulates the ground and helps the cold air to travel farther and more efficiently. Both conditions also allow temperatures to plummet at night, when winds are light and the sky is clear.
There will be a day or two, here and there, where the frigid conditions back off a bit, thanks in part to strengthening February sunshine, but any warming trend is likely to be brief.
"We are monitoring a potential polar vortex disruption in early February that can give an extra boost to the cold in the eastern U.S., about seven to 10 days later," Pastelok said. "Sudden warming high up in the atmosphere, or stratosphere, tends to set off a polar vortex displacement. That displacement may add more fury to a storm prior to the middle of the month and then more punch to the cold that follows that storm in the U.S."
The frequent arctic outbreaks in the coming weeks, or basically a continuation of what began around the middle of January, will result in monthly temperatures that are well below the historical average for February over much of the eastern half of the United States.
Monthly temperature departures of plus or minus 2 degrees Fahrenheit are considered to be about average. Some areas may experience temperature departures of 4, 8, 10, or even more degrees below average, especially in the Midwest when the month is tallied on Feb. 28.
AccuWeather's long-range team not only looks at conditions in North America, but current conditions and anticipated changes across the globe to make their extended forecasts.
"In terms of upcoming storms, there will be a moisture-starved feature that spreads an area of snow from portions of Missouri to Virginia from Tuesday to Wednesday," AccuWeather Senior Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
Another clipper storm with snow may follow a day or two later over the Upper Midwest and Northeast, with a second, more southern storm with some snow and ice to end the week, Lundberg added.
The much larger storm Pastelok alluded to just before the middle of the month will be studied closely in the coming days.
"That storm has the potential to bring snow and ice to much of the northern half of the country from Montana, Wyoming and Colorado to New Jersey, New York and New England in the neighborhood of Feb. 12-15," Lundberg explained.
In contrast to the frigid conditions ongoing in the eastern half to two-thirds of the nation, most areas west of the Rockies will continue with above-historical-average temperatures.
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The stormy start to the winter in California and the Southwest has since settled down, but a storm during the second week of February may snap that streak.
In the meantime, people from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast should keep their snow shovels and ice scrapers handy. This harsh winter isn't done yet.
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