Could pattern flip usher in snow to the Midwest, Northeast?
The coldest air so far this season will clash with mild air across the South, setting the stage for a potential winterlike storm late this week, including the risk of accumulating snow.
By
Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated Nov 1, 2021 4:29 AM EST
The groundwork for a major pattern change is in progress across the eastern half of the nation, which will usher in much colder air to start the month of November. While chilly conditions are almost certain at this point, the potential also exists for the first snowflakes of the season to fall across parts of the Midwest and Appalachians.
The coldest air of the season will funnel southward from Canada across a majority of the Plains and Midwest early in the week only to be met up with mild conditions across the south-central United States. This boundary between the mild and cold air will set the stage for a potent storm in the days that follow.
Forecast confidence is increasing that a storm will begin to take shape across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday and Thursday, and from there, a few different scenarios are possible.
In one scenario, a much stronger storm lifts northward up the East Coast, while in another scenario, a weaker, faster storm slides out into the Atlantic.
In the first scenario, a cold drenching rain could be expected across a majority of the Southeast by Thursday as the storm intensifies and begins to turn northward. By Friday, the storm could then march up the East Coast, spreading rain, wind and perhaps the first snow of the season across the higher elevations away from the coast.
The potential for snowfall in this scenario would begin to unfold perhaps as far south as the Blue Ridge Mountains Thursday night into Friday. The odds for any accumulating snow would likely reside farther north, however, into areas such as western Virginia, West Virginia and perhaps Pennsylvania to close out the week.
The potential for the first flakes of the season could also extend into the Poconos and Catskills this weekend if the storm comes to fruition.
This scenario would also make for a messy end to the week along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts as another coastal storm could be in the offing. After back-to-back storms inundated the regions to round out the month of October, storm-weary residents from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to Boston would need to prepare for yet another round of nasty weather.
In scenario number two, a much weaker and faster storm would unfold. In this instance, the storm would miss out on the opportunity to curve northward up the East Coast, leaving a majority of the Northeast dry late this week and into the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms would largely be confined to the southern Plains, lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast between Wednesday and Friday. The first snowflakes of the year could still be possible across the central Appalachians, but that would still require the storm to take a slight northward turn. Across the Blue Ridge Mountains, temperatures may be just a little bit too high for snow, especially below 6,000 feet in elevation.
Seasonably chilly air would encompass the Northeast and Great Lakes if the storm were to just slide off the coast late this week, and with the exception of a few lake-effect rain or snow showers, conditions would remain relatively tranquil.
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The month of November will likely be the first opportunity for the lake-effect snow machine to get cranking. The cold air and northwest winds set to inundate the central U.S. early this week will pass over the comparatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, resulting in a multi-day chance for snowfall regardless of any potential storm development.
The general set up for lake-effect snow requires cold air flowing over relatively warm lakes. The exact alignment of snow bands depends on the wind direction, but this image shows the typical areas that receive lake-effect snow during the winter months.
Places like Marquette and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, could be in line for a bit of snow during the week, perhaps enough to cover the tops of any remaining Halloween decorations left outside. The same can be said across the favored downwind areas of northwest Michigan, east of Lake Huron and across the high terrain downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
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News / Winter Weather
Could pattern flip usher in snow to the Midwest, Northeast?
The coldest air so far this season will clash with mild air across the South, setting the stage for a potential winterlike storm late this week, including the risk of accumulating snow.
By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated Nov 1, 2021 4:29 AM EST
The groundwork for a major pattern change is in progress across the eastern half of the nation, which will usher in much colder air to start the month of November. While chilly conditions are almost certain at this point, the potential also exists for the first snowflakes of the season to fall across parts of the Midwest and Appalachians.
The coldest air of the season will funnel southward from Canada across a majority of the Plains and Midwest early in the week only to be met up with mild conditions across the south-central United States. This boundary between the mild and cold air will set the stage for a potent storm in the days that follow.
Forecast confidence is increasing that a storm will begin to take shape across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday and Thursday, and from there, a few different scenarios are possible.
In one scenario, a much stronger storm lifts northward up the East Coast, while in another scenario, a weaker, faster storm slides out into the Atlantic.
In the first scenario, a cold drenching rain could be expected across a majority of the Southeast by Thursday as the storm intensifies and begins to turn northward. By Friday, the storm could then march up the East Coast, spreading rain, wind and perhaps the first snow of the season across the higher elevations away from the coast.
The potential for snowfall in this scenario would begin to unfold perhaps as far south as the Blue Ridge Mountains Thursday night into Friday. The odds for any accumulating snow would likely reside farther north, however, into areas such as western Virginia, West Virginia and perhaps Pennsylvania to close out the week.
The potential for the first flakes of the season could also extend into the Poconos and Catskills this weekend if the storm comes to fruition.
This scenario would also make for a messy end to the week along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts as another coastal storm could be in the offing. After back-to-back storms inundated the regions to round out the month of October, storm-weary residents from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to Boston would need to prepare for yet another round of nasty weather.
In scenario number two, a much weaker and faster storm would unfold. In this instance, the storm would miss out on the opportunity to curve northward up the East Coast, leaving a majority of the Northeast dry late this week and into the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms would largely be confined to the southern Plains, lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast between Wednesday and Friday. The first snowflakes of the year could still be possible across the central Appalachians, but that would still require the storm to take a slight northward turn. Across the Blue Ridge Mountains, temperatures may be just a little bit too high for snow, especially below 6,000 feet in elevation.
Seasonably chilly air would encompass the Northeast and Great Lakes if the storm were to just slide off the coast late this week, and with the exception of a few lake-effect rain or snow showers, conditions would remain relatively tranquil.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The month of November will likely be the first opportunity for the lake-effect snow machine to get cranking. The cold air and northwest winds set to inundate the central U.S. early this week will pass over the comparatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, resulting in a multi-day chance for snowfall regardless of any potential storm development.
The general set up for lake-effect snow requires cold air flowing over relatively warm lakes. The exact alignment of snow bands depends on the wind direction, but this image shows the typical areas that receive lake-effect snow during the winter months.
Places like Marquette and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, could be in line for a bit of snow during the week, perhaps enough to cover the tops of any remaining Halloween decorations left outside. The same can be said across the favored downwind areas of northwest Michigan, east of Lake Huron and across the high terrain downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
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For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.
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