Lesser Antilles may face tropical storm threat by early next week
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While an area of disturbed weather off the coast of the southeastern United States will not become a tropical depression or storm, a robust tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic may be a concern for the eastern Caribbean islands during the first full week of August.
The Cabo Verde portion of the Atlantic hurricane season typically ramps up in August.
While weak tropical disturbances, called tropical waves, have been moving westward from Africa all summer, this is the time of the year when conditions become more conducive for development of these disturbances into tropical storms and hurricanes.
Hurricane season peaks in the middle of September.
The feature of interest is located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
This satellite image shows a disorganized tropical disturbance over the open waters of the central Atlantic on Friday, August 2, 2019. (NOAA/Satellite)
"While there is some dust and dry air near this feature now, decreasing amounts of dry and dusty air and more favorable upper-level winds will support future organization of this wave this weekend," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido.
This feature has about a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression from late this week through this weekend to the east of the Windward and Leeward Islands.
The next name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin for 2019 is Chantal.
"The general track of this disturbance will largely be governed by the flow of air around a large area of high pressure over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean," Vido said.
The exact track of the feature may not be known until a defined center forms.
The clockwise flow around the high is likely to guide the feature toward the general direction of the Leeward and Windwards Islands early next week, then near the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola toward the middle of next week.
If the system takes a more northward track toward the U.S. and British Virgin islands, where stronger wind shear is forecast to be present, then some weakening is likely. In this scenario, it is even possible this disturbance may fail to develop into a tropical depression.
If the system takes a more southerly track over the middle of the Caribbean Sea, where less wind shear is forecast, then some strengthening or development can occur.
Regardless of development or not, an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity with locally rough seas and surf can occur as the feature moves through. Whether or not conditions become severe will depend on exact track, organization and strength of the feature as it passes by.
It is far too early to say whether or not this next disturbance will reach the Bahamas or the United States.
People living in or traveling to these areas by aircraft or on cruises should monitor this situation.
Download the free AccuWeather app to keep track of the latest tropical activity. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
