Could Hawaii face impacts from Erick, Flossie?
Hurricane Erick became the eastern Pacific Ocean's latest hurricane on Monday evening, and it will continue to wander westward toward Hawaii this week.
The basin's most recently named system organized into a tropical depression over 1,000 miles southwest of Baja California early Saturday morning, local time, before quickly strengthening into a tropical storm.
Erick intensified into a hurricane Monday evening as it traversed an environment with very warm water and weak wind shear, two factors that promote the strengthening of tropical systems.
"There is an high chance that Erick will become a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph as the week progresses," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Erick is the third hurricane of the 2019 East Pacific hurricane season, following Alvin and Barbara.
Barbara peaked as a Category 4 hurricane, before weakening. Barbara brushed past Hawaii as a tropical rainstorm in early July.
Tropical Storm Erick is seen on the right of this satellite image taken early Monday, July 29, 2019. Hawaii can be seen in the top left corner. (Photo/CIRA RAAMB)
While it is too early to determine whether Erick will pose a direct threat to Hawaii, rough surf and increased rip currents will impact the Big Island, at the very least, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson.
AccuWeather meteorologists are favoring a track in which Erick will pass south of the island chain during the latter part of the week.
By this point, Erick will have encountered much stronger wind shear and will likely be a tropical storm or tropical depression.
Large swells propagating outward from the storm will impact the east-facing beaches of the Big Island as early as midweek.
The highest surf will be along beaches exposed to the open ocean.
Rough surf may expand to south-facing shores as Erick passes by.
Surfers and swimmers are urged to use caution. Make sure you know how to safely escape the grip of a rip current before venturing into the water.
Beach goers should be aware how rip currents work and simple tips to stay safe if you find yourself stuck in one.
An uptick in locally gusty showers and thunderstorms may also occur as Erick makes its closest approach.
Enough rain can fall to lead to localized incidents of flash and urban flooding.
The heaviest rain is expected to soak the windward areas of the Big Island, but downpours could even reach locations that are typically sheltered during a traditional northeasterly trade-wind shower setup.
The extent and intensity of the conditions on the islands will be determined by the exact track of the storm.
"Those with interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Erick this week," Erickson said.
Just behind Erick, another area of disturbed weather evolved into Tropical Storm Flossie early Monday morning.
"Environmental conditions will be conducive for Tropical Storm Flossie to strengthen as it moves in a general westward motion over the open waters of the East Pacific," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Flossie could also reach hurricane status as it takes a similar or perhaps even more northerly track than Erick.
Interests in Hawaii will want to keep a close eye on Flossie in the wake of Erick.
The island chain will likely be subject to even more tropical threats in the coming months as AccuWeather meteorologists expect an above-normal hurricane season in the Eastern and Central Pacific.
Download the free AccuWeather app to keep track of the latest tropical activity. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
