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Wet weather to make a welcomed return to California early next week

By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Published Mar 6, 2020 11:51 AM EST

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The Mann Fire raged near Norco, California, on March 3, but by March 4 evacuation warnings were lifted in the area.

The general storm track along the West Coast this year has left much of the Golden State high and dry so far, increasing concerns for the upcoming fire season as drought conditions expand statewide. Thankfully, a southerly shift in the jet stream will bring a welcomed return of wet weather as a pair of storms bring an end to the dry streak in the coming days.

The first of two storm systems to impact the state came as a cold front that swept down the Pacific coastline late Friday. Most of the impacts were felt across the Pacific Northwest from this system, but wet weather that tracked into California was welcomed with open arms.

As this cold front continues to sag southward, places like San Francisco may see their first measurable rainfall since the last week in January.

In an average year, many cities across California observe the most precipitation during the month of February. That was not the case this year, with cities like Sacramento and San Francisco recording their first bone-dry February in more than 150 years.

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These dry conditions have already led to an unusually large number of reported fire incidents to start the year, including a large brush fire near Norco, California. This has many locals hoping for a 'Miracle March' in terms of precipitation to minimize the wildfire threat this upcoming dry season.

As the storm system tracks into the state to start the weekend, beneficial snow is expected to fall across the northern and central Sierra. Snow levels are expected to hover between 4,000 and 5,000 feet across the mountain range, with 4 to 8 inches of snow possible above that mark expected.

The weekend storm system is expected to largely fizzle out before it tracks into Southern California, but enough moisture may still be in place to bring a brief passing shower to places like Los Angeles and San Diego Saturday night into Sunday.

The storm system expected this weekend across California will likely just be a prequel of things to come next week. The next storm should have plenty of moisture to work with as it will be able to tap into subtropical Pacific moisture.

Monday should remain largely dry across California, but many cities will have a mostly cloudy sky as the storm approaches.

By Tuesday, the first significant rainfall of the year is expected to track into Southern California. Widespread totals of 1-3 inches of rain are forecast across much of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties from this storm system.

Rainfall totals closer to 1 inch are expected across the coastal valleys, while totals closer to 3 inches are forecast in the higher upsloping terrain.

An atmospheric river is forecast to set up over the region through the beginning of the week. This would bring an influx of moisture, fueling periods of heavier downpours and creating areas of flash flooding.

The storm system during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame is expected to mainly target the southern half of the state as it moves inland into midweek. Unfortunately, San Francisco, Sacramento and possibly even as far south as Fresno may struggle to pick up enough rain to help mitigate drought conditions.

Related:

Tornado that hit east of Nashville was EF4 twister packing 175-mph winds
NASA images show amazing reduction in pollution over China believed to be linked to coronavirus outbreak
California may need a 'Miracle March' to prevent an early and dangerous wildfire season

A steady rain will likely taper off to showers across California by Wednesday as the storm system progresses eastward into the Desert Southwest. Similarly to California, much of the Southwestern states have experienced very dry conditions this winter season as well.

The forecast beyond the middle of next week suggests that there will be additional chances for wet weather across the region into the latter half of March.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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AccuWeather Weather Forecasts Wet weather to make a welcomed return to California early next week
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