California may need a 'Miracle March' to prevent an early and dangerous wildfire season
By
John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Mar 5, 2020 4:22 PM EDT
Flames from a backfire consume a hillside as firefighters battle the Maria Fire in Santa Paula, Calif., on Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
A brush fire that grew to 175 acres in Norco, California, on Tuesday was perhaps a preview of what could be an early and dangerous wildfire season in a state that just had its driest February on record.
It was the eighth fire incident in 2020, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE). That already equals the number of fire incidents before April 1 in the last four years combined.
“The combination of a very dry January and an even drier February made for one of the driest first two months of any calendar year on record across much of southwestern California,” a statement from the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles forecast office read.
The Mann Fire raged near Norco, California, on March 3, but by March 4 evacuation warnings were lifted in the area.
Cities throughout California have had precipitation amounts well below normal through the end of February, including Los Angeles (94% below normal), San Francisco (86%), Sacramento (84%) and San Diego (80%).
California is still in its rainy season, which makes the lack of rain so surprising. “California is a Mediterranean climate,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “There are seasonal rains in California; the rainy season starts in October and lasts until March. The rest of the year is dry in Southern California.”
That means the state needs an abundance of rain in March – a so-called "Miracle March" – to prevent an extended and possibly problematic wildfire season statewide.
“That’s right, they do,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. “They got all the rain early in the rainy season, and since then it has been virtually nothing. But we have seen Marches and Aprils be very productive rainfall-wise in California before, and they definitely need that rain now.”
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San Francisco, San Jose, Sacramento and Redding, California, all had no rainfall for the entire month of February, breaking long-standing records. For downtown San Francisco, which has gone 36 days without rain through March 4th, it was the first rain-free February since 1864. “On average, those places typically receive over 4 inches of rain in February, so to have no rain at all is definitely unusual,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alyson Hoegg.
Most of California is “abnormally dry” or in “moderate drought,” according to the United States Drought Monitor. Also, the state’s snowpack was 44 percent of normal on March 2, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
A second problem that California is encountering is the higher temperatures throughout the state, which also could contribute to a longer wildfire season. Average daily temperatures in Los Angeles are 3.3 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal through the end of February, with Sacramento (2.6 F) and San Francisco (2.1 F), among others, having similar experiences. Hotter conditions dry out the soil, making moisture less available to plants and creating ideal wildfire conditions.
“We don’t really have a fire season anymore; it’s really a fire year,” said Cal Fire Deputy Director Mike Mohler.
The 2019 California wildfire season caused an estimated $80 billion in total damage and economic loss, and a total of 259,823 acres were burned. It followed two of the largest, most destructive and deadliest seasons in the state’s history; AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss caused by wildfires cost California $400 billion in 2018 and $85 billion in 2017. Wildfires burned 1.8 million acres in California in 2018 and 1.3 million acres in 2017.
For the 2020 wildfire season, California could get some relief in the short term, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
“We’re expecting rain to break out across California during the early and middle part of next week,” said Kottlowski. “It looks like mostly from San Francisco to Central California and south. We don’t forecast that much rain for San Francisco, but Southern California could get well over an inch of rain, maybe 2 inches in places. This looks like a very positive rain event for California.”
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Severe Weather
California may need a 'Miracle March' to prevent an early and dangerous wildfire season
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Mar 5, 2020 4:22 PM EDT
Flames from a backfire consume a hillside as firefighters battle the Maria Fire in Santa Paula, Calif., on Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
A brush fire that grew to 175 acres in Norco, California, on Tuesday was perhaps a preview of what could be an early and dangerous wildfire season in a state that just had its driest February on record.
It was the eighth fire incident in 2020, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE). That already equals the number of fire incidents before April 1 in the last four years combined.
“The combination of a very dry January and an even drier February made for one of the driest first two months of any calendar year on record across much of southwestern California,” a statement from the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles forecast office read.
The Mann Fire raged near Norco, California, on March 3, but by March 4 evacuation warnings were lifted in the area.
Cities throughout California have had precipitation amounts well below normal through the end of February, including Los Angeles (94% below normal), San Francisco (86%), Sacramento (84%) and San Diego (80%).
California is still in its rainy season, which makes the lack of rain so surprising. “California is a Mediterranean climate,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “There are seasonal rains in California; the rainy season starts in October and lasts until March. The rest of the year is dry in Southern California.”
That means the state needs an abundance of rain in March – a so-called "Miracle March" – to prevent an extended and possibly problematic wildfire season statewide.
“That’s right, they do,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. “They got all the rain early in the rainy season, and since then it has been virtually nothing. But we have seen Marches and Aprils be very productive rainfall-wise in California before, and they definitely need that rain now.”
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
San Francisco, San Jose, Sacramento and Redding, California, all had no rainfall for the entire month of February, breaking long-standing records. For downtown San Francisco, which has gone 36 days without rain through March 4th, it was the first rain-free February since 1864. “On average, those places typically receive over 4 inches of rain in February, so to have no rain at all is definitely unusual,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alyson Hoegg.
Most of California is “abnormally dry” or in “moderate drought,” according to the United States Drought Monitor. Also, the state’s snowpack was 44 percent of normal on March 2, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
A second problem that California is encountering is the higher temperatures throughout the state, which also could contribute to a longer wildfire season. Average daily temperatures in Los Angeles are 3.3 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal through the end of February, with Sacramento (2.6 F) and San Francisco (2.1 F), among others, having similar experiences. Hotter conditions dry out the soil, making moisture less available to plants and creating ideal wildfire conditions.
“We don’t really have a fire season anymore; it’s really a fire year,” said Cal Fire Deputy Director Mike Mohler.
The 2019 California wildfire season caused an estimated $80 billion in total damage and economic loss, and a total of 259,823 acres were burned. It followed two of the largest, most destructive and deadliest seasons in the state’s history; AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss caused by wildfires cost California $400 billion in 2018 and $85 billion in 2017. Wildfires burned 1.8 million acres in California in 2018 and 1.3 million acres in 2017.
For the 2020 wildfire season, California could get some relief in the short term, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
“We’re expecting rain to break out across California during the early and middle part of next week,” said Kottlowski. “It looks like mostly from San Francisco to Central California and south. We don’t forecast that much rain for San Francisco, but Southern California could get well over an inch of rain, maybe 2 inches in places. This looks like a very positive rain event for California.”
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo