Caribbean being monitored for new tropical development in mid-November
AccuWeather forecasters say warm waters and a temporary lull in disruptive winds could support tropical development in the western Caribbean during the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season.
In today’s Forecast Feed, AccuWeather meteorologists take a look at the latest on the tropics.
Following Melissa — the most destructive hurricane of the 2025 season so far — AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the Caribbean for the potential development of another tropical storm or hurricane that could threaten lives and property.
Hurricane season is not yet over, officially continuing through Nov. 30.
The Caribbean remains warm enough to support additional tropical development in the coming weeks, with heat stored deep in the sea helping to fuel storms.
"We are closely monitoring the southwestern Caribbean for signs of tropical development in the coming weeks," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Atmospheric conditions could support development through mid-November."
While hostile winds, known as wind shear, are increasing across much of the Atlantic — due in part to a strengthening jet stream — a quieter zone persists in the western Caribbean, where conditions may still support development.
However, even in this quieter zone, wind shear may increase at times, while decreasing in parts of the western and southern Atlantic in the weeks ahead. Due to this, some areas outside the Caribbean still require monitoring for potential tropical development.
"As we see it, if anything were to develop in the western portion of the Caribbean, it would likely move west toward Central America or Mexico due to easterly steering breezes," DaSilva said. "In addition, development time prior to landfall may limit the strength of such a storm."
Across much of the United States — from the central Gulf Coast to the mid-Atlantic — it is unlikely that a tropical system will bring wind or rain through mid-November, as strong westerly winds and an active jet stream are expected to inhibit development or steer any system well offshore.
"If there is development in the western Caribbean, it likely would not be until the second week or toward the middle of the month with all conditions considered," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
According to historical averages, November typically produces one named storm about every two years.
"In more recent years, however, November storms are becoming a bit more common. In November of 2024, for example, there were three named storms in the Atlantic basin, one of which reached hurricane strength," added DaSilva.
"We are seeing an uptick in frequency with respect to late-season storms, which is likely due to the warmer sea-surface temperatures observed," noted DaSilva.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
