Upcoming Valentine's Day storm to bring drenching rain to southern US
Tens of millions in the south-central and southeastern United States may "love" the fact that the next big storm will bring rain and not snow or ice to the region over Valentine's Day weekend.
Bernie Rayno breaks down who could be impacted by a storm this weekend along the East Coast.
A large storm is brewing for the end of the week and during Valentine's Day weekend in the central and eastern United States. Snow and ice are predicted on the storm's northern flank, but one of the biggest concerns is the drenching rain and thunderstorms that will affect the south-central and southeastern U.S.
Following that fresh push of chilly air, a new storm will form over Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana late in the week.
While there could be a brief period of ice and snow at the storm's onset in parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia, most of the storm from Missouri to Kentucky and southern Virginia will be rain.
The storm is likely to bring 1-4 inches of rain to parts of Texas, Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas through parts of Georgia and the Carolinas from Friday to Sunday. The storm will begin in the Plains states on Friday and spread eastward to southwestern Virginia, southward to northern Georgia this weekend.
That amount of rain over 24-48 hours will generally not cause problems, other than travel delays and minor urban/poor drainage-style flooding.
Much of the region could use a thorough soaking, which this storm has the potential to bring.
The zone from Texas and Oklahoma to Georgia and the Carolinas is experiencing a wide range of soil conditions from adequately moist to exceptional drought, based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
Depending on the overall intensity of the storm and the number of thunderstorms, locally higher amounts of rain may fall with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches. Too much rain may fall too fast for some small streams and neighborhoods to handle, so minor flooding may result.
Thunderstorms will begin to erupt Friday afternoon and continue into Friday night. Some storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, hail and flooding downpours. A tornado or two is also possible.
Those planning a romantic Valentine's Day walk in some Southern states will need an umbrella at the very least.
The most likely day for heavy, gusty, and possibly locally severe thunderstorms would be on Saturday in the zone from central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma to Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi, AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin speculated.
Some storms may linger later farther to the east.
As the storm advances, snow and ice could develop in the Northeast if the storm tracks far enough north. A storm tracking farther to the north could mean much less rain for part of the Southeast states as well.
While severe weather in the winter is much rarer than the rest of the year, there can still be a few events in the winter, especially in the Southern states, close to Gulf moisture.
As the storm's cool front drops across the Florida Peninsula on Sunday afternoon and evening, there is potential for a rain or lightning delay at one of NASCAR's biggest races of the year at Daytona International Speedway.
Navigation on the Mississippi River is closed in the upper portion due to extensive ice cover. Farther south along the main stem, shipping is limited due to ongoing low water levels, which are within several feet of the low threshold in multiple points along the river.
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