Isaias breaks 121-year record as the Atlantic's latest first hurricane
Isaias strengthened into a hurricane over the Gulf on Wednesday, ending the longest wait for a first hurricane since record-keeping began in the 1800s and putting the central Gulf Coast on alert for a weekend landfall.
As Tropical Storm Isaias began strengthening on a path toward the Gulf Coast on Oct. 7, preparations were well underway.
The Atlantic's hurricane drought is over, and it is now the longest on record. Isaias reached hurricane strength over the Gulf Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. That is later than the first hurricane of any season on record, surpassing the 7 p.m. Oct. 7 mark set in 1905.
Isaias is the ninth named storm of 2026. The first eight were all tropical storms, three of them hit the Gulf Coast, and none reached hurricane strength. In mid-September, Tropical Storm Fay came closest to hurricane status, peaking at 70 mph, 4 mph short of the Category 1 threshold.
Hurricane Isaias seen in NOAA satellite imagery on Oct. 8, 2026. (Image: NOAA)
What's next for the Gulf Coast
AccuWeather forecasts Isaias to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane over the central Gulf. Landfall is expected late Friday night or early Saturday, most likely between southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle. Isaias is peaking as a Major Category 3 Hurricane on Friday.
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Wind: Gusts of 100-120 mph are possible near and just east of the center, with tropical storm-force gusts of 40-60 mph reaching into Tennessee.
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Rain: A broad area of 1-4 inches is expected, with bands of 4-12 inches near and east of the track. Parts of the Southeast are still saturated from rain over the past week, so the flood risk is high.
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Other hazards: Storm surge, rip currents and tornadoes or waterspouts are expected east of the center, possibly hundreds of miles from landfall.
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Impact rating: AccuWeather rates it a 2 on its RealImpact™ Scale for the U.S.
Why it took so long to get a hurricane this season
A strengthening El Niño, possibly a record-strong one, has driven up wind shear across the Atlantic and kept storms from organizing. Gulf water temperatures in the 80s were the fuel Isaias needed.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Isaias was able to find a pocket of lower wind shear to develop and intensify.
"While El Niño does produce more frequent periods of wind shear across the Atlantic, it doesn't mean that wind shear will always be present across the entire basin throughout the season," DaSilva said. "There will be breaks in the shear and Isaiais was able to find one of the breaks in the shear. A break in the shear, combined with very warm water and a moist environment allowed this storm to form."
During Atlantic hurricane seasons when El Niño conditions are present, there are typically five hurricanes, fewer than when El Niño is not present. The busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons usually happen during La Niña, the counterpart to El Niño.
How close it came to no hurricanes at all
Only two seasons in the record, 1907 and 1914, had no known hurricane. Had Isaias fallen short, 2026 would have joined them as the first hurricane-free season in more than a century. Both of those seasons predate weather satellites, so hurricanes that stayed away from ships and land may have gone unrecorded.
AccuWeather experts are forecasting up to two hurricanes before the Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
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