Rachel to break Southwest heat and ease drought, but with flood risk
Rachel will not only turn back toward Mexico, but is also expected to send heavy rain into drought-stricken areas of Arizona and Utah, including the Colorado River basin, by early next week.
Hurricane Rachel could bring heavy rain back to the Desert Southwest after weakening, but that’s just one part of the busy season in the Pacific.
Hurricane Rachel is expected to eventually turn toward Mexico and send heavy rain into parts of the southwestern United States, raising concerns about renewed flooding after September’s downpours. Rachel, when combined with a non-tropical storm, could help prime the Colorado River, should drenching rain reach the basin as forecast.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Rachel was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.
This image of the eastern Pacific, captured on Wednesday morning, Oct. 7, 2026, shows Rachel as a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Rachel was about 740 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California Sur, Mexico, and was moving west-northwest at 7 mph.
"The hurricane is forecast to move away from land initially, keeping its strongest winds and heaviest rain offshore for much of this week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Rachel expected to turn back toward Mexico's coast
AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned that Rachel’s moisture could bring renewed flooding to parts of Mexico and the southwestern U.S. Rachel is not forecast to be as intense as Polo was, so impacts from wind and storm surge should be correspondingly less severe. However, Rachel still has a significant amount of moisture associated with it.
"A developing dip in the jet stream, a fast-moving current of air high in the atmosphere, could steer Rachel toward the coast of northwestern Mexico," DaSilva warned.
As Rachel turns toward Mexico, its moisture will spread northeastward across the country and into parts of the southwestern U.S. Additional downpours after weeks of heavy rain could trigger major flooding, primarily in parts of Arizona and Utah, along with mudslides and flows of water, mud and rocks in vulnerable terrain, DaSilva explained.
Parts of the Southwest received two to seven times their historical average September rainfall, due in part to the North American monsoon and moisture from Polo.
Colorado River to receive a big boost
A general 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall from northwest Mexico to much of Arizona and Utah. Within this downpour zone, pockets where 4-8 inches of rain are forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 12 inches.
On a positive note, a significant amount of Rachel's rain, assisted by the jet stream storm, should drench part of the Great Basin, including a large part of the drought-stricken Colorado River watershed.
During the summer, water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead reached historic lows.
More big waves to reach California
Swells spreading outward from Rachel, while over the eastern Pacific, will bring large waves and dangerous surf to the coasts of northwestern Mexico and California through this weekend, even though the hurricane is not forecast to become as intense as many have this season.
Swells from hurricanes offshore earlier this season caused significant beach erosion and coastal flooding in parts of California. Rachel could bring another round of dangerous surf, putting beachgoers and coastal property at risk.
Since Rachel is not expected to become nearly as strong as Polo or the other storms earlier this season, waves should be comparatively less intense.
Very active El Niño-driven Pacific hurricane season to continue
Across the eastern and central Pacific basins, this highly active season has produced 20 named storms and one additional tropical depression. Ten of the named storms became hurricanes, including eight major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher.
Polo was the most intense of the season and is tied as the second most intense ever in the basin. Polo's maximum sustained winds reached 180 mph on two separate occasions, and the hurricane reached Category 3 or greater intensity three times during its life.
Meanwhile, Nolo has crossed the International Date Line into the western Pacific, where it is now classified as a typhoon. Earlier, the storm brought rain, gusty winds and rough seas to Hawaii.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring an additional rainstorm off the coast of southern Mexico that has a high chance of developing into major hurricane over the next several days.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the eastern Pacific is Simon.
The rainstorm is expected to also turn northeast toward Mexico this weekend or early next week, bringing the risk of flooding rain, damaging winds and storm surge in part of western Mexico.
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