Isaias makes landfall along central Gulf Coast as flooding, damaging winds spread inland

Isaias made landfall in Destin, Florida, and while storm surge and winds are subsiding near the Gulf Coast, heavy rain and gusty winds will continue to spread quickly inland on Saturday.

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, on Friday evening as a 105-mph Category 2 -- just 6 mph below Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Isaias will continue to lose wind intensity as it moves over the interior United States. As storm surge flooding and winds subside along the Gulf Coast, torrential rainfall, gusty winds and tornadoes will occur inland this weekend.

Even though top sustained winds are no longer at hurricane force, quick movement of the storm will carry strong gusts well inland on its eastern flank, much more so than a slow-moving storm.

Isaias underwent rapid strengthening this week, with wind speeds increasing by 35 mph in 24 hours or less. In a special update by the National Hurricane Center, Isaias's wind speed reached 120 mph Friday morning, which is a Category 3, or major hurricane, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Isaias was downgraded to a Category 2 by Friday evening just ahead of landfall due to increasing wind shear and frictional effects of the Gulf Coast.

As AccuWeather meteorologists accurately predicted, Isaias tracked onshore just east of Pensacola, Florida, near Destin.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the U.S. is a 3. This scale rates the storm in terms of flooding, wind damage, risk to lives, property and commerce.

The combination of a dip in the jet stream approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley, and the circulation around the back side of high pressure moving off the mid-Atlantic coast that helped accelerate the hurricane into the southeastern U.S., will fling the now tropical wind and rainstorm along swiftly over the Central and Eastern states for the duration of the weekend.

Despite Isaias now well inland and seas and storm surge subsiding, conditions will remain rough through most of Saturday over the Gulf and along much of the Gulf beaches. Debris along the shoreline will be hazardous for swimmers until cleanup crews make their sweep.

As the storm closes in on the north-central Gulf Coast, squally winds and rain will increase. As the storm makes landfall in the stretch between the Florida and Alabama panhandles, rain will become heavier and steadier near and north of the center, and expand inland on a northerly trajectory.

A substantial impact from Isaias will be heavy rainfall in some coastal areas, leading to flooding, especially where the ground remains saturated from drenching rain over the past week.

A broad area of 1-4 inches of rain is forecast in the southeastern United States, with bands of 4-8 and 8-12 inches of rain close to and east of where the center tracks. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for this storm is 25 inches.

A broad zone with tropical storm-force winds of 40-60 mph will extend outward in the Southeastern states, especially near the central Gulf Coast and into Tennessee.

The latest AccuWeather forecast has the strongest winds extending well inland over Alabama.

As of daybreak on Saturday, close to a million utility customers were without power in Florida, Alabama and Georgia alone. As some power is restored, more outages will develop well inland as the storm moves quickly along.

"Because of the swift forward speed and broadening wind field of Isaias as the storm moves inland, damaging winds and power outages are likely to extend well inland,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter warned.

Isaias is not Helene but should be taken seriously

There are significant differences between Isaias and Helene from 2024.

"Isaias will be tracking much farther to the west into the Southeast states, when compared to Helene,” Porter explained. “Helene was a more powerful but much slower-moving storm than Isaias. There was also flooding rainfall for the days ahead of Helene's approach in the southern Appalachians."

So, while there may be significant tree damage and power outages well inland, strong winds should be of shorter duration.

Rain from Isaias will be limited to hours rather than many days.

"While flash flooding is always a concern with hurricanes and tropical storms and will be with Isaias, the scope and magnitude of flooding should be significantly less than with Helene,” Porter said.

"Another hazard from the storm will be the risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and waterspouts," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "The bulk of the severe weather is likely near and east of the center, but that risk can extend for hundreds of miles to the east this weekend."

Isaias to track well to the north

The jet stream and high pressure circulation will steer the storm over the interior Southeastern states and as far north as the Ohio Valley this weekend.

From there, the storm is forecast to turn eastward and cut across the Appalachians and then off the mid-Atlantic coast by Monday. By then, as a tropical rainstorm, drenching downpours can lead to localized flash flooding, especially in steep terrain and where the ground is saturated.

Within a day or two after this storm makes landfall along the Gulf Coast, Rachel, in the eastern Pacific, is expected to bring flooding rain and drought relief to parts of the Western states.

"Isaias now holds the record as the latest forming first hurricane in the Atlantic basin, breaking the previous record set by Hurricane Four in 1905 by 3.5 hours," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alexander DaSilva said.

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