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News / Weather Forecasts

Flooding fears linger in India as monsoon retreat remains elusive

By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Sep 7, 2020 6:14 PM EDT

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Monsoonal rain continues across parts of India this week, having residents wondering how long they must wait for the monsoonal moisture to retreat.

Monsoon moisture will be responsible for producing multiple areas of heavy rainfall into the end of the week.

"A weak monsoon low over the Arabian Sea, near Karnataka, will help to bring waves of heavy rain and thunderstorms this week," said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.

On Wednesday, Belgaum, located in northwestern Karnataka, reported 158 mm (6.20 inches) of rainfall in just 3 hours.

Another area of increased moisture in northeastern India will help to bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of West Bengal, Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh.

Over several days, widespread rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain are expected in these regions. However, through the course of the entire week, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 200 mm (8 inches) is possible.

This much rainfall, even spread out over a few days, will increase the risk for flooding in these areas, including the major hubs of Kolkata and Mumbai. Floodwaters could build up in metropolitan areas or wash out roadways surrounding the cities, resulting in remote villages being left stranded.

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Thunderstorms are also likely to accompany any of the heavier downpours. This presents an additional danger of lightning throughout the week. Almost 200 people were killed in northern India back in June when lightning strikes swept the region.

Across India as a whole, monsoon rainfall is 7 percent above normal thus far according to the India Meteorological Department, though central and southern India are respectively running 16 and 21 percent above normal. With the monsoon slow to withdraw, these amounts may climb higher.

More than 200,000 people were displaced by flooding in mid-June in Bangladesh, and more than 750 mm (30 inches) of rain fell in Mumbai in about one week in early August.

Residents in these areas, and elsewhere, are looking forward to relief from the relentless rain and flooding risks for the remainder of the year.

Related:

AccuWeather's 2020 Asia autumn forecast
Coronavirus daily briefing: India becomes 2nd-most infected country as spike continues

The monsoon typically begins to retreat from the northwestern parts of India during the first week of September.

"The withdrawal of the Southwest (India) monsoon from northwestern India is already delayed and is not anticipated until later in the week of Sept. 13," said Nicholls.

With the slower withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon, the Northeast monsoon onset in southern India may be delayed until late October.

"Onset of the Northeast monsoon in Chennai, India, can be delayed a week or perhaps more from its average Oct. 20 start date," Nicholls said.

For the remainder of the year, AccuWeather meteorologists disclosed in the Asia autumn forecast that more than the normal amount of rainfall is expected from coast to coast across central India.

Far southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala, India, as well as Sri Lanka, can be drier than average due partially to the late onset of the monsoon.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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