February thaw: Mild air to surge across the US this week
A dramatic temperature clash will set up across the nation and could pave the way for storms to produce areas of ice, rain and severe weather in the first week of February.
AccuWeather’s long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok was live on the AccuWeather Network with a preview of the spring forecast on Jan. 30.
Temperatures may approach record territory across more than a dozen states this week as mild Pacific air takes charge during the early days of February, AccuWeather experts say.
The surge of mild air will sharply contrast with an exceptionally cold and snowy January, which ended with temperatures 3-6 degrees below the historical average from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. The month included a record-shattering snow event along the Interstate-10 corridor from Texas to Florida.
Warmer weather will arrive as the jet stream shifts to a west-to-east orientation across the country, confining the coldest air to the far north.
Temperatures are forecast to skyrocket across the center of the country to start the new workweek, regardless of Punxsutawney Phil's prognostication of an extended winter.
Temperatures began to rise 15-20 degrees Fahrenheit above the historical average for early February on Sunday for cities from Oklahoma City and St. Louis to Detroit and Nashville. The warmth then expanded eastward and strengthened Monday.
"Temperatures soared into the 70s F in Nashville on Monday, when the average high temperature in early February is near 50 F," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis. Afternoon high temperatures surged to near 80 degrees Oklahoma City and Dallas.
High temperatures in the 40s, 50s and 60s were common across the Northeast, outside of northern New England, and the mid-Atlantic. Monday's high in the nation's capital may approach the daily record of 65, originally set in 1927.
Daytime temperatures will tend to ebb and flow across the mid-Atlantic into the end of the week as the region remains near the dividing line of warm and cool air.
Farther south, warmth will build to near-record levels into late week, making it feel more like March or even early April. Daily record highs will be challenged for one or more days in Dallas, Atlanta and Raleigh, to name a few cities.
This pattern could also challenge daily records in the Desert Southwest, including Phoenix, into and Tuesday.
Although temperatures will fluctuate throughout the week, abnormal warmth is forecast to return before week's end.
"High temperatures could be challenging records across Texas and part of the Southeast again on Thursday," Travis said.
Multiple storms to track across central, eastern US
The dividing line between the warm and cool air will serve as train tracks for several storms to sweep across the eastern half of the nation.
"We are expecting a busy pattern with three potential storms between Feb. 5 and 11, which can lead to disruptions to travel and business," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. "Two of the three potential storms can feature mixed wintry precipitation or snow across the Ohio Valley, northern mid-Atlantic and Northeast."
The first storm is expected to evolve around the middle of the week and spread a broad swath of precipitation from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and New England. There is the potential for a lengthy corridor of ice and soaking rain with this event.
A second storm may quickly follow on its heels by the second weekend of February.
"With the change in the pattern, it looks like severe thunderstorms will pick up across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. The western and central Gulf of Mexico is still running above historical averages, and the jet stream will still make some moves south at times. This combination can lead toward severe weather breaking out ahead of cold fronts in the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley then east, but not too far east," Pastelok said.
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