First ice storm in years to coat Midwest, Northeast, more winter storms coming
A potentially stormy first half of February will kick off with a large storm moving from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, bringing a risk for damaging thunderstorms and major icing.
An icy storm will make for treacherous travel for the Midwest from Wednesday to Thursday morning.
Following a mostly quiet and even mild start to the week across a large part of the eastern half of the nation, a large, multifaceted storm is expected to take shape by the middle of the week that can bring a variety of impacts, say AccuWeather meteorologists.
"A clash of warm, humid air and cold Arctic air will result in a myriad of impactful weather for millions of Americans this week," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "Severe thunderstorms, a dangerous ice storm and accumulating snow are all expected between Wednesday and Thursday as a storm races east."
The storm will signal the start of what could end up being one of the stormiest periods of the winter from the Plains to the East Coast during the first half of February, perhaps partially proving Punxsutawney Phil's prognostication of six more weeks of winter correct.
Threat of gusty storms, an icy mix begins Wednesday
As atmospheric ingredients come together over the central states Tuesday night into the Wednesday, the storm will be underway, and first on the docket will be a risk of an icy mix on its cold side and feisty thunderstorms on its warm side, warn AccuWeather experts.
"Record-challenging warmth funneling northward into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys will help provide the ingredients necessary for widespread thunderstorm activity beginning Wednesday," said Buckingham. "Some of the storms are even expected to turn severe."
Thunderstorms are expected to blossom early Wednesday afternoon in the western Tennessee Valley before charging to the east overnight. Hail and damaging wind gusts over 50 mph will be the primary threats.
Meanwhile, on the colder side of the storm, a wintry mix of snow and ice can throw a wrench into travel plans for the middle of the week in some big cities such as Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis.
A swath of snow is expected from Montana across the US-Canadian border into the Great Lakes through Wednesday night. Widespread snow amounts of 1-3 inches is expected, including in cities like Minneapolis, Minnesota and Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Farther south, there may be some snow, but ice will take over as the main threat.
"As the mild air mass clashes with frigid air farther north, the ingredients for a major ice storm are expected to be in place beginning Wednesday across a zone spanning from the Midwest to the Great Lakes," warned Buckingham.
Significant icing, featuring a build up of 0.25 of an inch or more, can occur into Wednesday night mainly along and between the Interstates 70 and 80 corridors in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. Hazardous travel would result from that freezing rain, which occurs when rain freezes on contact with any subfreezing surface.
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'Dangerous amounts of ice' in the mid-Atlantic Thursday
AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that the impacts from icing will not just be limited to the Midwest, but will also expand into parts of the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and Northeast later in the week.
"The potential exists for dangerous amounts of ice accretion into Thursday," added Buckingham. "This poses a risk for tree damage and power outages as the storm moves through."
A portion of the central Appalachians north through Pennsylvania and southern New York appear most at risk for a significant ice storm, where up to half of an inch of ice buildup is not out of the question. Cumberland, Maryland; Harrisburg, State College and Williamsport, Pennsylvania, are among the cities at risk for long-lasting power outages, downed tree limbs and nearly impossible travel conditions from this storm.
A much larger area extending as far south and east as the I-95 corridor from Washington to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston, and north through the Toronto, Canada area, and upstate New York, are expected to see a briefer period of icing, especially in the morning.
The Northeast big cities are expected to change over to rain as the storm persists. But farther to the north, snow is expected for part or most of the storm.
Cold air present along the US-Canadian border will allow for precipitation to fall as mostly snow across portions of the Northeast. Widespread snow amounts of 1-3" are expected across northern New England, with closer to half a foot of snow expected in the higher elevations of northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. A coating of snow is possible for places like Philadelphia and New York City.
Any amount of icing can lead to slippery travel, especially on untreated surfaces and bridges and overpasses. This period may end up coinciding with the Thursday morning commute in many areas, forcing delayed openings or closures for schools and businesses.
Complicating things will be the potential for cold, gusty winds to follow the storm on Thursday and Friday, potentially resulting in a rash of additional hazards even after the icing is over. Temperatures are expected to drop back near or below the historical average for early February across much of the Midwest and Northeast behind the storm.
Widespread wind gusts of 40-50 mph are forecast across the Great Lakes on Thursday, before shifting into the interior Northeast on Friday. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible across the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast Friday as well.
The start of a train of storms into mid-February?
AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters have been hinting about a stormy first half of February since last month, and that scenario seems to be coming to fruition. In a prediction that beat Punxsutawney Phil's by several days, wintry weather will be abundant.
"We are monitoring three potential storms between Feb. 5-11," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok last month. "This will be a busy pattern with potential disruptions to travel and business."
Following the first storm during the middle of this week, another will follow closely on its heels from Friday through the weekend. While details on where snow, ice and thunderstorms can occur are still hazy at this point, many of the same of the same areas are expected to see adverse weather and travel delays.
At least one more storm can follow for beginning early in the workweek after, and indications are that even more moisture and cold air may be available for a larger area of snow and ice then.
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