Tropical wind and rainstorm to threaten East Coast with beach erosion, flooding rain
AccuWeather meteorologists are putting the East Coast on alert for more tropical coastal impacts, and the potential for heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend.
In today’s Forecast Feed, AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno analyzes weather models tracking a developing storm in the Atlantic that could impact the coasts of the Carolinas and Virginia later this week and into the weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn of increased tropical activity in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins heading into the middle of October. Yet again, the southeastern United States is under threat for tropical impacts.
"AccuWeather is monitoring an area off the Southeast coast with a high risk of tropical development potential later this week through the weekend," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
This zone between the Bahamas, the southeastern U.S. Coast and Bermuda has been a hot spot for tropical development so far this season, with Tropical Storm Chantal, Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Imelda all strengthening in this area.
"The tropical wind and rainstorm is expected to form over the Gulf Stream off the Southeast coast Friday or over the weekend. This additional heat and energy from the warm ocean current can allow the rainstorm to strengthen further," DaSilva explained.
DaSilva continued to explain that it's possible the tropical rain and wind storm could strengthen enough to become a depression or tropical storm. The next name on the 2025 Atlantic basin tropical name list is Karen. The name Jerry was claimed by a new tropical storm well east of the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday morning.
The rainstorm is forecast to move northward into early next week, once again raising concerns of rough surf and strong rip currents along the East coast. Beaches from central Florida to southern New England could all be impacted by this storm.
The expected slow-moving nature of the tropical wind and rainstorm have AccuWeather meteorologists concerned about prolonged coastal flooding and beach erosion. These impacts are likely whether this feature becomes a tropical storm or not.
"The Carolina coastline will be of particular concern. Areas of the Outer Banks that lost several beach houses to rough surf last week could face another round of beach erosion and rough surf from this coastal storm," said DaSilva.
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A round of heavy rain is most likely over the weekend across the Carolinas, eastern Virginia and southeastern Maryland, especially at coastal locations and from Interstate 95 on eastward.
The possibility of more widespread heavy rain differs more greatly heading into early next week.
Exactly how close the tropical rainstorm ends up to the East Coast beaches will depend on the timing and strength of other nearby weather features, including strong high pressure off the New England coast later in the week.
A strong and slow-moving high pressure in the North Atlantic would be more likely to steer the tropical wind and rainstorm close to the mid-Atlantic. This scenario could bring heavy, tropical rain as far west as the Virginia and Pennsylvania Appalachians and even into southern New England by Sunday afternoon.
Alternatively, a scenario with faster-moving high pressure would allow the rainstorm room to travel farther east, away from the coastline, lessening the expected rain impacts.
Given the ongoing drought across much of the mid-Atlantic and New England, the potential for rain could be seen as welcome. However, too much rain too quickly in this more susceptible area could instead lead to flash flooding should all the ingredients come together this weekend.
"If the storm moves far enough north, wind associated with it may bring down a lot of leaves across the Northeast. This can bring a rapid end the fall foliage in areas currently at or near peak color," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Even a storm farther out to sea could bring gusty winds that impact the fall foliage before early next week. Where no rain and gusty winds coincide with areas of drought, wildfires may be an increased concern.
The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
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