Temperature roller coaster, and finally some much-needed rain, on the way for the East
October can be a month of extremes, and the Midwest and Northeast will experience it all in the coming days: warm afternoons, frosty mornings and desperately needed rain.
Drought conditions are hitting agricultural industries especially hard, but the effects are far-reaching in the Northeast this fall.
The parched Midwest and Northeast will finally get a drink of water in the form of rain in the coming days, while temperatures will fluctuate wildly from near-record heat to a frosty chill through the new week, say AccuWeather meteorologists.
"The extended stretch of dry, summerlike conditions will soon be coming to an end as a cold front is set to sweep in conditions more typical for early October next week, along with some rain," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
From summertime warmth to a fall chill
Even though the calendar reads October, temperatures more typical of July have been roasting the Plains and Midwest since late in the week. AccuWeather meteorologists say this warmth will build into East, but its hold will be temporary.
The warmup comes on the heels of several beautiful fall days, with cool, crisp mornings followed by comfortable afternoons. On Friday, that change arrived in central and western portions of the Great Lakes, where afternoon highs soared into the 80s. Similar warmth will build east through the start of the new workweek.
Record high temperatures in the lower 80s will be challenged on Sunday in the Great Lakes, and both Sunday and Monday in the Northeast. Such temperatures are 15 to as much as 25 degrees above historical averages for early October, and may mark the last time until next spring that the mercury ventures above the 80-degree mark.
As a cold front sweeps through, a change to more typical, autumn temperatures will arrive by Monday in the Midwest and Great Lakes, and Tuesday and Wednesday in the East. High temperatures are expected to fall by as much as 20 degrees over the span of two days in cities such as Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, resulting in much more seasonable conditions for the middle and end of the week.
These temperatures in the 50s, 60s and lower 70s will feel much more appropriate for leaf-peepers in the region this week. Fall foliage in parts of the Midwest, upstate New York and northern New England was already at peak this past weekend, according to reports.
Some much-needed rain is also ahead
Since the middle of summer, rain has been hard to come by across large swaths of the Midwest and East, leading to increasingly dry conditions. Fortunately, for those pining for some wet weather, Mother Nature will provide in the new week.
"Before rain arrives, worsening drought conditions spanning from the Ohio River Valley to New England will prompt an elevated risk for brush fires," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "This is especially true across New England where dry leaves are falling."
The same front that will bring the cooldown in the new week was organizing in the Plains, where it is expected to bring locally heavy rain and a risk for severe weather over the weekend. For much of the Midwest, Great Lakes and East, it will be more of a welcome sight than a hindrance.
"The incoming front is expected to bring beneficial rain across many of the drought-stricken areas across the Midwest and Northeast," said Buckingham. "However, it will not be enough to erase the drought conditions."
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Late Monday into Monday night, cities like Chicago, which hasn't experienced measurable rain in nearly two weeks (Sept. 23), will start seeing the rain fall. Weekslong dry streaks will come to an end later Tuesday or Wednesday for cities farther east, including Albany, New York (Sept. 25); Erie, Pennsylvania (Sept. 24); New York City (Sept. 28); and Philadelphia (also Sept. 28).
While the rain is not expected to be heavy enough to cause widespread flooding, there can be some instances of ponding on roadways which can slow travel, especially during commutes. A few thunderstorms embedded in the rain will also cause heavy rain.
There will also be a hidden danger. "It has been more than a week since the last rainfall from the Midwest to the East, so oils have collected on roadways," pointed out AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill. "When rain front mixes with these oils, the roads will become more slippery than normal."
A bigger cooldown may be coming in mid-October
While the cooler weather arriving in the new week will be noticeable, it may give way to another, more subdued warmup by next weekend. After that, AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasting experts is watching for an even bigger drop in temperature some time around the middle of the month.
"There may be a more notable cooling trend around Oct. 15-19," said Merrill. "Global weather patterns are lining up to bring a few days of below- to near-average temperatures and possibly a hard freeze that will end the growing season in parts of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast."
The pattern leading to this roller coaster in temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast will unfortunately not come with much beneficial rain, but with gusty winds that can raise the fire danger.
"Unfortunately, winds will be rather breezy just ahead and immediately behind this month's fronts," pointed out Merrill. "With the ongoing drought and plenty of fuel moisture, such as dry leaves, there will remain a risk for wildfires to develop and spread."
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