Bird flu spike driving up Thanksgiving turkey prices, experts warn
USDA data shows bird flu cases have surged this fall, particularly among turkeys — the holiday main course. Experts warn that the outbreak could push up prices leading up to Thanksgiving.
The American Farm Bureau Federation has shared its annual look at what families can expect to spend on their Thanksgiving feast this year.
The highly contagious bird flu virus is decimating commercial flocks of chickens and turkeys just as the holiday season approaches, threatening higher prices for Thanksgiving staples.
New data from Purdue University’s College of Agriculture shows wholesale turkey prices have surged 75% since October 2024, reaching $1.71 per pound in October 2025. The school’s forecast suggests prices could climb to $2.05 per pound by Thanksgiving, driven largely by bird flu outbreaks in key turkey-producing states.
Experts at Purdue place the blame on the ongoing battle with avian influenza, which has become an ongoing challenge for poultry farmers.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture data, more than 30 commercial flocks and 30 backyard flocks have been infected over the past 30 days, resulting in 1.65 million birds lost.
Close-up of whole baked Thanksgiving turkey on a serving platter at the table, part of an American Thanksgiving meal, Lafayette, California, November 28, 2024. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images)
Cases have consistently risen since September, climbing from 60,000 infections to nearly 4 million by the end of October. The current outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in U.S. commercial flocks was first confirmed in 2022.
Food Animal Concerns Trust’s Safe and Healthy Food Director Steve Roach said each exposure increases the risk of another pandemic.
“These viruses can recombine, so two different viruses can come together and pick up genes from the other. So you get a worker in a farm that has, you know, a human flu that equally transfers between people and it combines with this bird flu, and then we have something totally new and very scary,” Roach told AccuWeather.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the risk to the general public is low, but outbreaks are possible among some groups, including poultry workers.
Roach explained that wild birds often carry the virus without getting sick.
“The problem is the birds that we raise for food, turkeys and chickens, are very vulnerable to this disease, and they do tend to die, you know, like 90% and so, because they're almost all going to die,” Roach said.
The current USDA policy to prevent the bird flu from spreading is to dispose of the animals.
“Turkey prices are going up because, you know, hundreds of thousands of turkeys that can't be sold because they were infected with this virus,” Roach said.
According to the National Turkey Federation, HPAI remains the largest challenge facing the industry, with more than 18.9 million turkeys lost since February 2022.
FILE PHOTO: With a chicken coop as a backdrop, signs in English and Spanish are seen at the Tilden Little Farm, in the Tilden Nature Area, reading, "Due to the potential presence of avian flu in the region, for your safety please do not touch or feed the animals. Please wash your hands when leaving the Little Farm," on March 16, 2025, in Berkeley, California. (Photo by Jay L Clendenin/Getty Images)
Roach said agricultural experts are still trying to understand the impacts of the government shutdown and changes at the USDA on containing the avian flu.
“The shutdown is kind of compounding a problem, where a whole bunch of people left USDA, which are the ones responsible for monitoring, and frankly, from my perspective, we haven't done enough monitoring in the first place,” Roach said.
The avian flu can spread to people, as well as other animals. Roach said cats have died from the disease after eating raw meat.
“We do know that there are mistakes being made,” he said. “Where we keep having these cats dying from basically meat that's been sent to slaughter plants that had bird flu.”
Roach said vaccinating commercial birds and more tracking could help curb the current avian flu outbreak, as well as rethinking how animals are raised for consumption in crowded facilities, making them vulnerable to disease spread.
“Always whenever the wild birds are moving around and weather is cooler, we're going to get flocks infected, and that creates this risk of people getting infected, and more serious things,” Roach said.
Hurricane Helene, natural disasters increase Thanksgiving side dish costs
There is some good news for turkey prices this year.
Samantha Ayoub, an economist with the American Farm Bureau, told AccuWeather consumer demand has fallen overall for turkeys, helping to balance out costs.
Additionally, grocery stores order turkeys months in advance to help meet demand ahead of the holidays.
“Many stores might put things on sale to help families afford their turkey this year,” Ayoub said.
However, prices in the produce section are up, according to an American Farm Bureau study.
Ayoub said produce prices are higher this year due to rising production costs and recent natural disasters. North Carolina, a major sweet potatoe producer, is still dealing with impacts from Hurricane Helene in 2024.
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