El Niño is almost here with increasing odds of it rivaling the strongest in history
Major changes with global weather patterns are on the horizon as El Niño develops. AccuWeather meteorologists are saying there is an increasing chance that it becomes a rare "super El Niño."
AccuWeather’s Anna Azallion says there is a growing chance of a super El Niño this year, which will have numerous weather-related impacts on much of the United States.
A shift in the global weather pattern is underway with El Niño likely to take shape soon, a development that can redirect storms, influence the upcoming hurricane season and play a significant role in the weather next winter.
AccuWeather experts say El Niño is expected to develop around the start of summer and could reach “super El Niño” status as early as October or November. Later in 2026 or around the start of 2027, it may rival some of the strongest in history.
What is El Niño?
“An El Niño is not a storm. It does not affect you directly. It is a cycle that contributes, like many other factors, to produce weather changes and sometimes extremes,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok explained.
The emerging El Niño will be the third in the past 10 years and can be traced back to the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.
When the ocean water in this area is at least 0.9 of a degree Fahrenheit (0.5 of a degree Celsius) above long-term averages, El Niño is declared. To become a super El Niño, the water must warm to at least 3.6 F (2 C) above normal, which has only happened five times since 1950. This is the opposite of La Niña, when waters in this region are cooler.
This large-scale shift has major implications for weather patterns around the globe, which is why forecasters are monitoring the situation closely. "While some impacts may emerge later this year, the more significant global weather effects are likely early next year," Pastelok said.
What El Niño means for the U.S. this summer
“In the United States, an El Niño pattern typically brings more rain to the Midwest and parts of the West during the summer,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill. “It will likely produce extended periods of dry weather from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast but mixed in will be some heavy pockets of rain.”
Los Angeles skyline, left, is seen under a sunset thunderstorm on Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2010. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
The impacts are expected to intensify heading into winter and will be the biggest factors AccuWeather meteorologists analyze when making long-range forecasts into the start of 2027.
“The U.S. could see a more active southern storm track this winter, including wetter conditions across parts of the Southern states, warmer conditions across portions of the northern U.S. and an increased risk of weather extremes," Pastelok said.
El Niño and hurricanes
One of the biggest impacts this year will be the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.
In the Pacific Ocean, the abundance of warm water could supercharge storms, boosting the number of tropical storms and hurricanes and increasing the risk of impacts to California, Hawaii and Mexico.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño promotes disruptive winds that can limit the number of storms, especially compared to recent years.
“While El Niño may lower the total storm count, it will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season," DaSilva said, adding that the U.S. is still likely to see three to five direct impacts from tropical storms and/or hurricanes this year.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, with impacts from El Niño increasing as the season progresses.
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