El Nino to fuel Pacific hurricane season, increase risks for California, Hawaii, Mexico
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts on May 15, and AccuWeather hurricane experts are warning that El Niño could promote a surge in activity in 2026.
The East Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15, so what should we expect this year?
Exceptionally warm waters and a developing El Niño will boost tropical activity during the 2026 Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane season, raising the risk of direct impacts in Hawaii, Southern California and parts of Mexico.
The Eastern and Central Pacific basins are expected to produce above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes in 2026.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season started on May 15, while the Central Pacific hurricane season begins on June 1.
“This could be an unusually active and potentially impactful year in the Pacific basin, unlike the Atlantic basin, where we are forecasting fewer storms than the historical average,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Hurricane Hilary spinning off the Pacific Coast of Mexico on Aug. 18, 2023. (NASA WorldView)
Significant impacts are possible in Hawaii, which was hit hard by flash flooding from back-to-back Kona Low storms in March. AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss from flooding in Hawaii at around $2 billion.
2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Forecast
•17-22 named storms
•9-13 hurricanes
•4-8 major hurricanes
•6-9 direct impacts to Mexico/Central America
2026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Forecast
•4-7 named storms
•2-4 hurricanes
•1-3 major hurricanes
•1-2 direct impacts to Hawaii
AccuWeather defines a direct impact as a storm bringing flooding, tropical storm-force winds, at least 2 feet of storm surge, or passing within 60 miles of a coastline.
Key Factors Driving this Pacific Hurricane Season
El Niño typically favors a more active Eastern Pacific season by reducing disruptive wind shear. At the same time, very warm ocean water at the surface and hundreds of feet deep (ocean heat content) can support more tropical development and increase the risk of rapid intensification.
“The Pacific is unusually warm, and that raises the stakes this season," DaSilva said. "That extra energy stored in the ocean can help storms strengthen faster, last longer and in some cases move farther north toward places like Baja California and far Southern California."
The increasing likelihood for the developing El Niño to intensify into a rare super El Niño later in the season could help fuel tropical development in late October and November.
Areas with elevated risk in 2026
•Far Southern California: Above-average risk of tropical impacts compared to historical average, as storms or tropical moisture may track farther north over exceptionally warm water.
“Southern California is not a place where people usually think about tropical impacts, but the warm water and overall pattern deserve close attention,” DaSilva explained. “Hurricane Hilary in 2023 and Hurricane Kay in 2022 highlighted the risk of tropical rainfall and flooding impacts reaching Southern California.”
•Southwestern U.S.: There will be an increased risk of significant flooding, especially when tropical moisture moves north from Mexico and interacts with a near-average North American monsoon. Tropical systems can send bursts of heavy rain into Arizona, New Mexico and Southern California, even without a direct landfall.
“Storms coming out of the Pacific can push heavy rain deep into the Southwest. Nora made landfall in western Mexico in 2021, but moisture from that storm advanced north roughly 1,000 miles and triggered flash flooding in Arizona. Dozens of swift water rescues occurred in the Phoenix area in the wake of Nora.”
•Hawaii: There will be an above-average risk of significant tropical impacts, including damaging winds, flooding rain and storm surge, as unusually warm waters south and east of the islands support stronger systems.
“Hawaii has gone a long time without a direct hurricane landfall, but that should not lead to complacency,” DaSilva explained. “Some islands were hit hard by flash flooding in March. People across Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year.”
•Mexico: There is a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts across Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco and Guerrero, based on AccuWeather analysis.
“Exceptionally warm water this summer could fuel storms like Otis in 2023,” DaSilva said. “Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in roughly 24 hours before striking Acapulco, leaving people with little time to prepare or evacuate.”
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