The 2026 El Niño could become the strongest in a lifetime
A strengthening El Niño is already suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and could become one of the strongest on record, with impacts extending into fall and winter across the U.S.
Anna Azillion breaks down why the 2026 El Niño could become the strongest since at least 1950, suppress Atlantic tropical development and influence U.S. weather into fall and winter.
A strengthening El Niño is already reshaping weather around the globe, suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and influencing storm tracks with the potential for the climate pattern to become one of the strongest on record.
El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures near the equator in the eastern and central Pacific rise above the historical average for an extended period. Changes in the ocean and atmosphere can shift storm tracks around the globe, affecting tropical activity, temperatures and precipitation patterns.
A man stands on a flooded street of Angol, Araucania region, southern Chile, on August 3, 2026, following heavy rains. (Photo by GUILLERMO SALGADO / AFP via Getty Images)
AccuWeather hurricane experts have very high confidence that Super El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is becoming increasingly likely that the 2026-27 El Niño could become the strongest since at least 1950.
In July, global sea surface temperatures surpassed record levels set during the 2023 marine heat wave with 2.1 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the long-term average.
El Niño 2026-2027 could top the past five record El Niños, according to data dating back to 1850.
An AccuWeather analysis of NOAA data, along with a database maintained by University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy that extends the historical record to 1850, indicates the 2026 El Niño could rival or surpass some of the strongest events on record.
NOAA RONI data show that the 2026 El Niño forecast mean of 2.66 would rank as the strongest in the historical record if it verifies. That would exceed the previous highest three-month mean of 2.40 from November 1982 through February 1983.
The next strongest events were 2.26 from November 1902 through January 1903, 2.26 from October through December 1997, 2.23 from October through December 1877 and 2.20 from November 2015 through January 2016.
Still, AccuWeather experts stress that whether the 2026-27 El Niño ultimately sets a record will not determine the scale of its impacts.
"It really does not matter whether this is a record or Very Strong El Niño. It is about the impacts, and the impacts will not change either way,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. “We are seeing a strong impact in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, with extreme wind shear limiting Atlantic storm development, while the Pacific remains quite active as we expected back in the spring.”
How is El Niño impacting global weather?
El Niño can influence storm tracks around the globe, with the impacts becoming more pronounced in the cooler seasons.
For example, across parts of South America where it is currently winter, the weather pattern in southern Chile and Argentina in July and early August was wetter than the historical average, one of the hallmark signals of El Niño.
In the United States, fall-like temperatures may also take longer than usual to become established. AccuWeather's fall forecast calls for a strengthening El Niño to become a dominant influence on U.S. weather, including an active southern storm track and above-average temperatures across parts of the northern tier.
Drought is another concern. Extreme and exceptional drought is expected to persist in parts of the West, where dry conditions have contributed to an intense wildfire season.
This photo provided by the Oregon Department of Transportation on Monday, July 27, 2026, shows the Fox Fire burning in eastern Oregon. (Oregon Department of Transportation via AP)
One of El Niño's most significant impacts this year is unfolding in the Atlantic hurricane season.
A stronger El Niño typically increases disruptive winds high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic. This wind shear can make it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and intensify.
AccuWeather lowered its Atlantic hurricane forecast as El Niño strengthened. The latest forecast calls for eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes during the 2026 season.
Despite the lower storm count, AccuWeather experts continue to warn that dangerous U.S. impacts remain possible, particularly because exceptionally warm water near the coastline can allow storms to develop or strengthen close to land.
Children near breaking waves on West End Pier on Lake Pontchartrain as Tropical Storm Bertha approaches the Louisiana Coast Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
The season is also running behind several historical benchmarks. On average, the first Atlantic hurricane develops by Aug. 11, while the fourth named storm forms by Aug. 15. The average date of the season's first major hurricane is Sept. 1.
The climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs around Sept. 10, meaning there is still ample time for additional tropical development.
What could Super El Niño mean for winter?
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean as of Aug. 18, 2026.
AccuWeather experts say the developing pattern could play a major role in determining where storms track during the 2026-27 winter.
A strong El Niño typically strengthens and shifts the southern branch of the jet stream, increasing the potential for wetter conditions across parts of the southern United States while favoring warmer conditions across portions of the North. However, there are other factors that can make this El Niño different from others in recent history.
“The water temperatures in two separate areas, the north-central Pacific and off the Mexican coast, are running well above average. We call these marine heat waves that have formed, and we have seen what these marine heat waves have done has altered upper-level patterns and also storm tracks,” Pastelok said.
Those unusually warm areas of the Pacific could interact with El Niño and other large-scale atmospheric patterns, affecting the placement and strength of winter storm tracks.
AccuWeather will release its long-range winter forecast in October, when meteorologists expect to have a clearer picture of how El Niño, the marine heat waves and the polar vortex could influence rain, snow and temperatures across the country.
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