Atlantic hurricane forecast changes as peak season approaches
The updated forecast calls for fewer storms overall, but the expected number of direct U.S. impacts remains at three to five.
AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva breaks down the updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast, including why the outlook has been lowered and why the U.S. still faces risks this season.
El Niño is poised to become one of the strongest in history, a major factor expected to limit tropical activity through the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather now forecasts eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. This is lower than the initial forecast issued in March, which called for 11-16 named storms. Despite the lower seasonal forecast, the expected number of direct U.S. impacts remains unchanged at three to five.
“The reason for this assessment is the increasing chances of a record-strong Super El Niño developing,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Even though El Niño is a phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, it has a ripple effect on weather patterns around the world. During the Atlantic hurricane season, El Niño promotes more disruptive winds, known as wind shear, over parts of the basin. Frequent episodes of disruptive wind shear can make it harder for storms to develop and strengthen.
"That gives us greater confidence in lowering the total number of named storms, but it does not eliminate the risk of a damaging hurricane strike in the United States," DaSilva cautioned. "It only takes one storm to define a hurricane season."
What another year without a hurricane landfall would mean
So far in 2026, three tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic basin. Arthur and Bertha both made landfall along the Gulf Coast, while Cristobal was short-lived over the open Atlantic.
Josiah Carpenter, 8, watches a wave crash along Lake Pontchartrain as Tropical Storm Bertha approaches the Louisiana Coast Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
The season is running behind several historical benchmarks. On average, the first Atlantic hurricane develops by Aug. 11, and the fourth named storm forms by Aug. 15. The average date for the season’s first major hurricane is Sept. 1.
By comparison, the 2025 season had already produced five named storms by Aug. 19, including Category 5 Hurricane Erin.
The potential milestone follows an unusual 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, when several powerful storms developed but no hurricanes made landfall in the United States.
Two of the previous multiyear stretches without a continental U.S. hurricane landfall have occurred since the turn of the century: 2000-2001 and 2009-2010.
The longest stretch in the historical record lasted three consecutive years, from 1862 through 1864.
U.S. still faces risk of more landfalling storms
AccuWeather hurricane experts have very high confidence that Super El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of the hurricane season. It is becoming increasingly likely to be the strongest El Niño on record since at least 1950.
“While those atmospheric conditions can reduce the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes, they do not eliminate the threat to the United States,” DaSilva added. “Exceptionally warm waters near part of the U.S. coastline can provide fuel for tropical systems that develop close to land, raising concerns about rapid intensification and leaving people and businesses with less time to prepare.”
Residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should remain vigilant because more storms could still directly impact the United States this season.
The northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are areas at higher-than-historical-average risk of direct impacts this season. The northeastern Caribbean is also at increased risk.
It only takes one storm
The total number of storms in a season does not determine how destructive or costly that season will be.
“The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season is one of the most dramatic examples,” said DaSilva. “Only seven named storms developed, but Hurricane Andrew became a Category 5 hurricane and devastated South Florida.”
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is around Sept. 10, with tropical development and U.S. impacts possible well into the fall.
Some of the most destructive hurricanes in recent history have struck after the climatological peak of the season. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 4 hurricane on Sept. 26, 2024, causing catastrophic flooding and devastation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Less than two weeks later, Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, as a Category 3 hurricane on Oct. 9.
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