El Niño is here, and it’s developing earlier and faster than many typically do
There is a 40% chance that it evolves into a "super El Niño" with global impacts that will last into 2027, AccuWeather experts says.
AccuWeather’s Anna Azallion says there is a growing chance of a super El Niño this year, which will have numerous weather-related impacts on much of the United States.
El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern that can reshape weather around the globe into 2027. The last El Niño was in 2023-24, and forecasters say this one is developing earlier than many typically do.
"The sea surface temperatures are quickly changing in the equatorial Pacific," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained. By early June, the water in this region had risen by at least 0.9 of a degree F, reaching a threshold associated with El Niño conditions.
A map showing sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific Ocean. Areas that are yellow, orange and red are regions where waters are much warmer than normal, while green and blue areas are cooler than average. (NASA WorldView)
“Most El Niños begin in the fall, so this is developing much earlier and faster than expected," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. “The weather patterns here early in the summer are also lining up to what is expected with an El Niño.”
AccuWeather experts say there is a 40% chance it evolves into a "super El Nino." To reach that level, water near the equator in the eastern Pacific would need to climb to at least 3.6 degrees F above the long-term average. The stronger El Niño becomes, the greater its potential influence on weather patterns around the world.
As of early June, water in the eastern Pacific was already running at exceptional levels. Climate Central reported the warmth was higher than in any year since 1982.
A chart showing ocean temperatures for the region of the Pacific Ocean where El Niño occurs. (Climage Central)
El Niño is not the only factor long-range forecasters are watching. Other parts of the Pacific are also unusually warm.
"Warming water between Hawaii and the Baja can help feed into the warming near the equator to increase El Niño," Pastelok added. There is also a broad area of warm water that stretches over 3,000 miles from near Japan to north of Hawaii, which is much warmer than historical averages.
Together, those factors could make this El Niño look different from others in recent history.
El Niño Q&A:
Can El Niño make landfall?
No. "An El Niño is not a storm. It does not affect you directly," Pastelok explained. "It is a cycle that contributes, like many other factors, to produce weather changes and sometimes extremes."
What does El Niño mean for summer weather?
It depends on where you live in the United States. Severe weather and tornadoes can increase in the central and eastern U.S. during the summer, while other regions experience drier conditions.
"It will intensify drought in the Northwest and northern Rockies and lessen drought intensity and coverage in the Southwest," Merrill added. "It won’t do anything to eliminate the long-term drought in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic until we get to late fall and early winter."
What does this mean for hurricane season?
“While El Niño may lower the total storm count, it will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
One storm can define an entire season. El Niño was in place at the start of the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, which is remembered for Hurricane Andrew’s devastating Category 5 strike on Florida, even though the season produced only seven named storms, well below the historical average of 14.
Meanwhile, warmer Pacific waters can help fuel tropical activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins, increasing the risk of impacts for Mexico, Hawaii and, in some setups, California.
How long will El Niño last?
AccuWeather expects El Niño to continue into at least the start of 2027, but the impacts could last even longer. Its influence is often more pronounced in winter than in summer or autumn.
Typically, El Niño winters are stormy across California and the Southwest, raising the risk of flooding while also helping to fill vital water reservoirs. It can also lead to wetter and cooler conditions across the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, winters tend to be less cold and have less rain and snow across the northern half of the U.S.
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