Past El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons still had devastating storms: 'It only takes one'
El Nino years may reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but every El Nino season has still featured significant tropical storm landfalls on the U.S. coast.
AccuWeather’s Jon Porter monitors the equatorial Pacific where El Niño conditions are leading to rising sea surface temperatures. This could lead to more tropical activity in the Pacific region.
One of the biggest impacts of the upcoming El Niño this year will be to lessen the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, but while El Niño means fewer storms, it does not always mean less impact.
El Niño promotes disruptive winds, known as wind shear, that can limit the number of storms, especially compared to recent years. The Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1, and impacts from El Niño will increase as the season progresses.
'It only takes one' in a season with fewer named Atlantic storms
Since the start of the satellite era in the 1960s, El Niño years have averaged about 10 named storms and five hurricanes. That is well below the historical average during La Niña years, which typically produce around 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. In years when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, the average is 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.
“While El Niño may lower the total storm count, it will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, adding that the U.S. is still likely to see three to five direct impacts from tropical storms and/or hurricanes this year.
Even with numbers near or below historical averages, the season can still turn destructive. The same has been true for previous El Niño years, proving the adage "it only takes one storm."
Which Atlantic hurricane seasons had the biggest El Niños?
The biggest El Niño Atlantic seasons in the satellite era (after 1965), calculated by three-month maximum RONI levels during the tropical season (June-November), were 1972, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2002 and 2015. Those Atlantic tropical seasons still featured damaging U.S. landfalls from tropical storms or hurricanes.
Hurricane Andrew, one of the most powerful hurricanes to ever strike the U.S., is often quoted as an El Niño year storm, but although 1992 featured a strong El Niño during the first six months of the year, the tropical season of June to November had no El Niño conditions.
"Even though El Niño conditions technically ended in July 1992, El Niño still had an effect on the Atlantic hurricane season that year," DaSilva said.
Other significant storms during the six El Niño seasons are listed below.
Hurricane Agnes 1972
Hurricane Agnes is one of the most infamous hurricanes to occur during an El Niño Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is remembered especially for its record-setting flooding in Pennsylvania, far from where it made landfall, demonstrating that a hurricane's impacts can be felt well inland.
The storm and its aftermath also held political implications for President Richard Nixon. Hurricane Agnes killed 119 people in the U.S. and caused over $2.1 billion (1972 USD) in damage. That amount would be $16.6 billion today.
Tropical Storm Chris 1982
On Sept. 8, 1982, Tropical Storm Chris made landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana. The storm dropped 16 inches of rain in Delhi, Louisiana, but caused severe flooding as far inland as Kentucky. The storm spawned nine tornadoes in the state, including an F2 twister.
Hurricane Floyd 1987
Hurricane Floyd struck the Florida Keys in 1987 as a Category 1 storm, causing flooding from Miami all the way up to Fort Pierce, where more than 10 inches of rain was recorded. Damage amounted to $500,000 (1987 USD), or $1.44 million today.
Hurricane Danny 1997
On July 19, 1997, Hurricane Danny slammed into the Louisiana coast, then moved back over water before making landfall again on the Alabama coast, both locations as a Category 1 hurricane. Danny dropped more than 3 feet (36.71 inches) of rain on Dauphin Island, Alabama, setting the record as the wettest tropical cyclone for the state. That record still stands today.
Days later, a foot of rain from Danny fell in North Carolina, while five tornadoes, including one F2, occurred in South Carolina. A total of nine people were killed by the storm. Damage was estimated at $100 million (1997 USD), or more than $200 million today.
Hurricane Lili 2002
Hurricane Lili became a Category 4 major hurricane in the Gulf but weakened before making landfall along the middle Louisiana coast as a Category 1 storm. Still, winds over 120 mph, five tornadoes, and a 12-foot storm surge hit the state. Over $1.14 billion in damage (2002 USD), $2.1 billion today, was done and two people were killed in the United States, with another 13 killed in the Caribbean by the storm.
During the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, four more tropical storms made landfall in Louisiana, with the total of five landfalls being a record that still stands today.
Tropical Storm Bill 2015
Tropical Storm Bill hit the Texas coast early in the season, on June 16, 2015. The storm caused $100 million in damage, mainly from flooding in Texas and Oklahoma after Bill brought more than 10 inches of rain in parts of both states.
Bill wasn't even the first tropical storm to make landfall in 2015. Tropical Storm Ana was the earliest U.S. landfalling storm on record, active from May 8 to May 11, 2015, three weeks before hurricane season began. The storm made landfall in South Carolina and killed two people, spawning a tornado in North Carolina and dropping over 6 inches of rain in both states.
Plan ahead of the storm, even during El Niño seasons
These storms prove that, even with lower numbers in the Atlantic, devastating storms can make landfall during El Niño seasons. Residents on the coast should prepare for this Atlantic hurricane season with the same fervor as if it were predicted to be above average.
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