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Downpours to douse Southeast late this week

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Mar 5, 2021 9:12 AM EST

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The Dishmans have been living in London, Kentucky, for 16 years, but on March 1, they grabbed as much as they could and fled their trailer as nearly half a foot of water poured inside.

Following a round of rain that drenched parts of Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina on Tuesday and Tuesday night, more wet weather is in store by the end of the week.

Clouds decreased in the wake of the recent rainstorm in the Southeast and a dry and sunny day unfolded on Thursday. This tranquil pattern will not last long, as a new storm gathers strength to the west of the area. Some locations such as Columbia, South Carolina and Atlanta that received rain to start the month may be spared by the next system. It will be a different story farther south as the storm tracks over the Gulf of Mexico.

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"The heaviest rain from this event it most likely to target portions of Florida as the newly strengthened storm pushes across the state," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert.

Before the rain gets that far east, showers will dampen portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, eastern Texas and Louisiana into Friday, as the system will track over those areas first.

"It is possible for a small area of heavy, gusty and isolated severe thunderstorms to develop along the upper Texas coast on Friday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said.

Clouds will increase from west to east over Florida on Friday and especially on Friday night. Showers are expected to break out in the panhandle and northern and central parts of the peninsula overnight before heavier rain develops in the central and southern peninsula on Saturday.

"The west-central portion of the Florida Peninsula is likely to pick up 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of rain from this storm system with perhaps double that amount along the east-central portion of the Peninsula mainly from late Friday night to Saturday," Houk said.

While some areas farther north have had a surplus of rain so far this year, it has been a different story in the Sunshine State.

"Since Jan. 1, Orlando International Airport has recorded just 66% of its normal amount of precipitation. Tampa stands at 87% of normal precipitation with Cape Canaveral at 89%," Gilbert added.

Even though the rain will be beneficial overall, some of the rain could be heavy enough to cause flooding as the area of low pressure moves across the state. Although localized flooding is possible in any location with downpours, widespread flooding, like what is occurring in Kentucky, is not expected.

By Thursday evening, Frankfort, Kentucky, was seeing major flood levels from the Kentucky River at 40 feet. This is the highest crest since 2010, and could become the ninth greatest flood on record for Frankfort.

"Those who need to travel across the region should monitor for rapidly changing conditions and should never attempt to forge flooded roadways," Gilbert said.

There could also be a few thunderstorms, especially on Saturday afternoon. However, severe weather is not expected.

This system should move off the Florida coast and into the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday night. After that, dry weather should return to Florida and the rest of the Southeast through at least the middle of next week.

Related:

Spring is here! Here's what to expect across the U.S. this season
AccuWeather's 2021 severe weather and tornado forecast
Finally! A lasting warmup is on the way for parts of US
Strengthening storm could ignite severe weather outbreak

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, Fubo, and Verizon Fios.

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