Strengthening storm could ignite severe weather outbreak
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Mar 5, 2021 9:47 AM EDT
Bernie Rayno is issuing a spring fever alert as warmer air is on the way. However, he warns that the warm weather could also bring a risk of severe weather.
After February unleashed far-reaching brutal winter weather conditions across the United States, a relative period of calm weather has settled in for the start of March. National radar maps showed virtually no precipitation across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday, which is just about as quiet as it gets for the month. With a few exceptions -- like snow squalls that swept across the Northeast and flooding that inundated Kentucky -- March mainly came in like a lamb as opposed to the proverbial saying, "March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb."
However, AccuWeather forecasters are sounding an early alert that the tranquil weather could change in a big way next week. A large storm system could emerge from the western U.S. and strengthen over the Central states next week, potentially leading to a multiple days of severe weather in roughly the same area.
Large storms are not uncommon for March. During this month of transition, surging warmth often clashes with lingering areas of cold air as the jet stream remains quite strong overhead. These ingredients can set the stage for major weather systems to take shape.
The circulation of the storm may produce a broad area of gusty winds from the Rockies to the Plains and Midwest even outside of any damaging thunderstorms that ignite -- and snow and blizzard conditions could unfold along the storm's colder, northwestern flank. In the storm's warm southern and eastern sectors, conditions may bring a severe weather risk, in addition to drenching showers and thunderstorms.
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"We are expecting a pattern change to evolve next week that favors building warmth over parts of the Southern and Central states, and the risk of severe weather is likely to increase during the middle and latter part of next week in these same areas," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"All forms of severe weather ranging from flash flooding and large hail to high winds and isolated tornadoes are possible at this time," Rayno added.
The year is off to a slow start in terms of severe weather compared to the last decade and beyond. Only 24 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) from Jan. 1 to March 1 in 2021. That figure — although still a preliminary tornado count — is the lowest number of tornadoes compared to the past 16 years, according to the SPC.
Transitioning from the winter season to the severe weather season can be an adjustment in any year, but especially so for this upcoming spring due to the cold, snow and ice that wreaked havoc across the South Central states during the middle of February. AccuWeather estimates that damage and economic losses related to winter weather across the United States in February will approach $155 billion.
The overall scope and intensity of the severe weather are in question as the period of concern is about a week away. However, people in the Central and Southern states may want to review their severe weather plans now that the first potential large-scale threat is on deck.
"It is possible there are two main rounds of severe weather -- one produced by the main storm from Wednesday to Wednesday night and the other from a secondary storm spanning Friday into Saturday," Rayno said.
The risk of thunderstorms or even showers with damaging winds may extend northeastward through part of the Ohio Valley and northward to part of the Great Lakes region with the first storm into Wednesday night.
The severe weather from both systems may overlap in some areas especially over the South-Central states. However, there may also be locally severe storms in between the two main events over the Central states and perhaps as early as Tuesday evening in portions of western Texas and Oklahoma.
The severe weather season, which extends into August, typically begins to ramp up in March. On average, May produces the greatest number of tornadoes across the nation, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Texas typically experiences the greatest number of tornadoes of any state during March, as well as annually, based on data from NCDC. This is not only due to the state's large size compared to others in the Lower 48 states, but the Lone Star State is in a portion of the nation where ingredients often come together for severe weather. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico often collides with dry air from the deserts across Texas, and that is a recipe for dangerous weather conditions to erupt.
The details on the location, coverage and intensity of severe weather anticipated for next week will continue to be covered in the coming days on AccuWeather.com and people are urged to closely monitor the severe weather threat.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, Fubo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Severe Weather
Strengthening storm could ignite severe weather outbreak
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Mar 5, 2021 9:47 AM EDT
Bernie Rayno is issuing a spring fever alert as warmer air is on the way. However, he warns that the warm weather could also bring a risk of severe weather.
After February unleashed far-reaching brutal winter weather conditions across the United States, a relative period of calm weather has settled in for the start of March. National radar maps showed virtually no precipitation across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday, which is just about as quiet as it gets for the month. With a few exceptions -- like snow squalls that swept across the Northeast and flooding that inundated Kentucky -- March mainly came in like a lamb as opposed to the proverbial saying, "March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb."
However, AccuWeather forecasters are sounding an early alert that the tranquil weather could change in a big way next week. A large storm system could emerge from the western U.S. and strengthen over the Central states next week, potentially leading to a multiple days of severe weather in roughly the same area.
Large storms are not uncommon for March. During this month of transition, surging warmth often clashes with lingering areas of cold air as the jet stream remains quite strong overhead. These ingredients can set the stage for major weather systems to take shape.
The circulation of the storm may produce a broad area of gusty winds from the Rockies to the Plains and Midwest even outside of any damaging thunderstorms that ignite -- and snow and blizzard conditions could unfold along the storm's colder, northwestern flank. In the storm's warm southern and eastern sectors, conditions may bring a severe weather risk, in addition to drenching showers and thunderstorms.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"We are expecting a pattern change to evolve next week that favors building warmth over parts of the Southern and Central states, and the risk of severe weather is likely to increase during the middle and latter part of next week in these same areas," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"All forms of severe weather ranging from flash flooding and large hail to high winds and isolated tornadoes are possible at this time," Rayno added.
The year is off to a slow start in terms of severe weather compared to the last decade and beyond. Only 24 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) from Jan. 1 to March 1 in 2021. That figure — although still a preliminary tornado count — is the lowest number of tornadoes compared to the past 16 years, according to the SPC.
Transitioning from the winter season to the severe weather season can be an adjustment in any year, but especially so for this upcoming spring due to the cold, snow and ice that wreaked havoc across the South Central states during the middle of February. AccuWeather estimates that damage and economic losses related to winter weather across the United States in February will approach $155 billion.
The overall scope and intensity of the severe weather are in question as the period of concern is about a week away. However, people in the Central and Southern states may want to review their severe weather plans now that the first potential large-scale threat is on deck.
"It is possible there are two main rounds of severe weather -- one produced by the main storm from Wednesday to Wednesday night and the other from a secondary storm spanning Friday into Saturday," Rayno said.
The risk of thunderstorms or even showers with damaging winds may extend northeastward through part of the Ohio Valley and northward to part of the Great Lakes region with the first storm into Wednesday night.
The severe weather from both systems may overlap in some areas especially over the South-Central states. However, there may also be locally severe storms in between the two main events over the Central states and perhaps as early as Tuesday evening in portions of western Texas and Oklahoma.
The severe weather season, which extends into August, typically begins to ramp up in March. On average, May produces the greatest number of tornadoes across the nation, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Texas typically experiences the greatest number of tornadoes of any state during March, as well as annually, based on data from NCDC. This is not only due to the state's large size compared to others in the Lower 48 states, but the Lone Star State is in a portion of the nation where ingredients often come together for severe weather. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico often collides with dry air from the deserts across Texas, and that is a recipe for dangerous weather conditions to erupt.
The details on the location, coverage and intensity of severe weather anticipated for next week will continue to be covered in the coming days on AccuWeather.com and people are urged to closely monitor the severe weather threat.
Related:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, Fubo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo