Severe weather aims for central, southern US in first days of 2023
AccuWeather forecasters say warmer air will help set the table for potentially damaging storms to develop.
Mother Nature will not be wasting any time brewing up another potent storm as 2022 comes to a close and the calendar turns to 2023. A multifaceted storm system is expected in the southern and central United States during the first days of the new year that will not only bring more snow to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest but also an eruption of severe thunderstorms farther south and east.
"Accumulating snow, the potential for freezing rain, flooding rainfall and a threat of severe thunderstorms are all possible, and residents may be wondering if the calendar changed to April instead of January," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
The storm is first expected to move across the Four Corners region on New Year's Day where mountain snow and valley rain could dampen any festivities. However, as the storm moves east of the Colorado Rockies, it is expected to re-intensify as it moves across the nation's midsection by Monday.
Mild and moist air ahead of the strengthening storm will set the stage for the threat of severe weather Monday afternoon through Monday night.
Afternoon high temperatures could be reminiscent of early spring rather than the middle of winter as the mercury from Texas to Mississippi tops out in the middle to upper 70s. Meanwhile, temperatures farther north in Chicago and St. Louis are set to be March-like. In some locations, the warmth could shatter record highs.
In Texas, Austin will approach the daily record of 81 that was previously established in 2006.
"Southerly winds are expected to flow out of the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which should put plenty of warm and moist air in place across the South Central states," Buckingham said.
A large dip in the jet stream pattern, coupled with a surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to yield the necessary atmospheric ingredients for severe weather across eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi at the start of the week.
Depending on the exact track and timing of the storm, severe weather may be possible as far north as Missouri and Illinois.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that cities such as Houston and Dallas, Texas; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Jackson, Mississippi; could be at risk of a few isolated tornadoes, localized flash flooding and damaging wind gusts later Monday. In some areas, winds could gust to an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph.
Tuesday, the threat for severe thunderstorms can continue eastward through the Southeast.
“The ingredients aren’t expected to be as favorable for widespread severe weather on Tuesday as compared to Monday, but some communities in the Southeast will still face a risk for damaging thunderstorms,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.
Places like New Orleans, Birmingham and Mobile, Alabama and perhaps at least some western suburbs of Atlanta can see the threat for severe weather on Tuesday.
"As the storm progresses eastward, flooding concerns are expected to rise across portions of the Great Lakes into the middle of the week where a hefty snow base is in currently in place," Buckingham said.
The Great Lakes and Northeast are already receiving a thorough soaking to end the year, and any more rain next week will further saturate the ground and escalate the snow melt.
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