Downpours to douse Southeast ahead of looming tropical threat
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 18, 2020 5:25 PM EDT
Residents in the Southeast may be tempted to look ahead to impending tropical threats early next week. However, forecasters urge those in the region not to overlook the short-term forecast over the next few days.
Meteorologists expect an onslaught of showers and thunderstorms through this weekend, with an uptick in activity already getting underway.
"As a southward dip in the jet stream directs moisture northward across the Southeastern states from Thursday to Sunday, spotty downpours will tend to become more widespread and repeat in nature," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
Those hoping to spend time outdoors may have to dodge showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
Through Sunday, a general 1-3 inches of rain is likely for most, with the greatest and locally higher amounts expected along the northeastern part of the Gulf Coast, as well as in and near the southern Appalachians.
Locally severe thunderstorms will also be possible with the uptick in thunderstorm activity. "While widespread severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, any stronger storms could produce some locally damaging winds," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda. "A tornado or two also can't be ruled out."
On Wednesday an EF2 tornado touched down in DeLand, Florida, destroying homes and shocking residents.
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For places such as Atlanta, the prospect of rainfall is not terrible news as the city has received less than 70% of its normal rainfall since July 1. A few pockets in Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina and Florida are considered to be abnormally dry, based on latest report from the United States Drought Monitor.
However, Hickory, North Carolina, was deluged by 17.02 inches of rain during the same period, compared to the normal rainfall of 6.93 inches. Richmond, Virginia, picked up a whopping 15.08 inches of rain during the first 17 days of August alone. Richmond typically receives 2.60 inches of rain during the first part of the month.
Where the ground remains saturated from last week's rain and where more downpours occur through this weekend, the risk of flash flooding will be greatest. The risk is highest along the Atlantic coast and over parts of the southern Appalachians.
Another concern will be what happens next week as there are two tropical systems brewing over the Atlantic.
Both systems could bring more and widespread heavy rainfall to part of the Southern states. The more immediate threat from a hurricane making landfall would be for high winds and coastal flooding. However, the track after landfall might be a concern in saturated areas of the southern Appalachians and along part of the Atlantic coast.
"It seems increasingly likely that at least one tropical system is headed for the Southeastern US next week," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda. "Inland flooding is already a significant threat from any tropical system, even weak ones. Downpours over the next few days could exacerbate that threat for portions of the Southeast next week."
Rainfall from either or both tropical systems would probably not affect the entire region at once. It remains unclear at this point which areas might be most impacted by the heaviest rainfall, especially since the Atlantic systems haven't become organized enough to be named yet.
"As tropical systems become better organized and we get closer in time to potential impacts, computer guidance typically becomes more reliable and forecasters can hone in on the areas at greatest risk," Sojda said.
Forecasters urge people across the South to monitor the short-term forecast for rainfall as well as the long-term tropical outlook.
In terms of temperature, the same dip in the jet stream helping to promote a wet weather pattern for the Southeast will also lower temperatures in much of the region from midweek through this weekend, even though the core of the cool air will be over the Midwest.
The most notable difference will be daytime highs running 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit below average across the interior and up to a few degrees below average in coastal areas. Typical highs during the third week in August for the region are in the middle 80s to near 90.
During next week, as the jet stream retreats northward and with the potential approach of one or two tropical systems, temperatures will trend upward and the air will get quite steamy once again.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Severe Weather
Downpours to douse Southeast ahead of looming tropical threat
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 18, 2020 5:25 PM EDT
Residents in the Southeast may be tempted to look ahead to impending tropical threats early next week. However, forecasters urge those in the region not to overlook the short-term forecast over the next few days.
Meteorologists expect an onslaught of showers and thunderstorms through this weekend, with an uptick in activity already getting underway.
"As a southward dip in the jet stream directs moisture northward across the Southeastern states from Thursday to Sunday, spotty downpours will tend to become more widespread and repeat in nature," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
Those hoping to spend time outdoors may have to dodge showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
Through Sunday, a general 1-3 inches of rain is likely for most, with the greatest and locally higher amounts expected along the northeastern part of the Gulf Coast, as well as in and near the southern Appalachians.
Locally severe thunderstorms will also be possible with the uptick in thunderstorm activity. "While widespread severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, any stronger storms could produce some locally damaging winds," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda. "A tornado or two also can't be ruled out."
On Wednesday an EF2 tornado touched down in DeLand, Florida, destroying homes and shocking residents.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
For places such as Atlanta, the prospect of rainfall is not terrible news as the city has received less than 70% of its normal rainfall since July 1. A few pockets in Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina and Florida are considered to be abnormally dry, based on latest report from the United States Drought Monitor.
However, Hickory, North Carolina, was deluged by 17.02 inches of rain during the same period, compared to the normal rainfall of 6.93 inches. Richmond, Virginia, picked up a whopping 15.08 inches of rain during the first 17 days of August alone. Richmond typically receives 2.60 inches of rain during the first part of the month.
Related:
Where the ground remains saturated from last week's rain and where more downpours occur through this weekend, the risk of flash flooding will be greatest. The risk is highest along the Atlantic coast and over parts of the southern Appalachians.
Another concern will be what happens next week as there are two tropical systems brewing over the Atlantic.
Both systems could bring more and widespread heavy rainfall to part of the Southern states. The more immediate threat from a hurricane making landfall would be for high winds and coastal flooding. However, the track after landfall might be a concern in saturated areas of the southern Appalachians and along part of the Atlantic coast.
"It seems increasingly likely that at least one tropical system is headed for the Southeastern US next week," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda. "Inland flooding is already a significant threat from any tropical system, even weak ones. Downpours over the next few days could exacerbate that threat for portions of the Southeast next week."
Rainfall from either or both tropical systems would probably not affect the entire region at once. It remains unclear at this point which areas might be most impacted by the heaviest rainfall, especially since the Atlantic systems haven't become organized enough to be named yet.
"As tropical systems become better organized and we get closer in time to potential impacts, computer guidance typically becomes more reliable and forecasters can hone in on the areas at greatest risk," Sojda said.
Forecasters urge people across the South to monitor the short-term forecast for rainfall as well as the long-term tropical outlook.
In terms of temperature, the same dip in the jet stream helping to promote a wet weather pattern for the Southeast will also lower temperatures in much of the region from midweek through this weekend, even though the core of the cool air will be over the Midwest.
The most notable difference will be daytime highs running 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit below average across the interior and up to a few degrees below average in coastal areas. Typical highs during the third week in August for the region are in the middle 80s to near 90.
During next week, as the jet stream retreats northward and with the potential approach of one or two tropical systems, temperatures will trend upward and the air will get quite steamy once again.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo