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Moisture surging into southwest US: Will SoCal have any rain?

A monsoonal pattern is setting up across the Southwest states this week, ushering in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could advance to coastal cities like San Diego.

By Alyssa Glenny, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Published Aug 31, 2025 10:01 AM EST | Updated Sep 3, 2025 5:09 AM EST

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Lightning lit up the skies over Northern California as welcome rain fell in Arizona from Sept. 1-2.

Southern California will have an increased chance for drenching downpours this week as moisture surges into the southwestern United States, AccuWeather forecasters say.

Any rain can prove beneficial amid drought conditions

Drought levels across the Four Corners and Southern California range from severe to exceptional, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. There has been little relief in terms of drought across this corridor over the last few months, given the dry conditions in place.

“Arizona residents have reported a rather dry summer with the monsoon failing to materialize in this part of the Southwest. Phoenix is experiencing its 19th driest summer on record," noted AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.

Merrill added that the pattern will shift this week, opening the door for monsoon moisture to push into much of Arizona later this week.

"Unfortunately, too much rain at once on a dry ground can spark flash flooding in several spots, particularly Thursday into this weekend. The heavy rain potential will end by early next week (Sept. 8-9)," stated Merrill.

Meanwhile, locations farther north across the Pacific Northwest will miss out on any notable rain entering the Southwest. Rather, this pattern will continue to usher in record-challenging heat this week for cities across Oregon, Washington and the surrounding states.

Southwest moisture to have a tropical influence

In the East Pacific, Kiko intensified to hurricane strength late Tuesday as it churned well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California over the open ocean waters.

Hurricane Lorena, which formed just off the west coast of Mexico Monday night, is being monitored by AccuWeather hurricane experts through this weekend.

"We will need to watch for moisture being drawn to the north into the Southwest from Lorena located off of the west coast of Mexico," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Douty added that, "The most likely time period for any impacts from this looks to be late this week into the weekend."

The general pattern across a portion of the Southwest U.S. will feature daily thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon hours.

"Hikers or anyone else spending time outdoors this week will want to keep a close eye on the weather to avoid getting caught unexpectedly in a dangerous location during any storm," cautioned Douty.

Keeping an eye on Southern California

Over the upcoming days, moisture will migrate northwestward and into parts of Arizona, Southern California and even southern Nevada. Major metros like San Diego may stand a chance at being briefly drenched Monday night or Tuesday.

Temperatures along the coast from Los Angeles to San Diego during the first half of the week are projected to range from the 80s to 90s Fahrenheit.

Any showers or thunderstorms that reach places like San Diego this week could produce downpours that impact travelers.

More stories of interest:

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AccuWeather Weather Forecasts Moisture surging into southwest US: Will SoCal have any rain?
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